The Democratic party’s strategy has been to make this election a referendum on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, rather than the Biden-Harris administration. But Trump’s late campaign strategy of building a unity team to carry messages that appeal to undecided voters appears to be paying dividends.
This strategy has worked to soften Trump’s image with women and create a broader, more appealing set of messages that has worked to sway independent voters. According to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has a one-point lead among independents, down from the 13-point advantage that Joe Biden had during the 2020 election.
Key to all this is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He’s dismissed by many as a conspiracy theorist, but his dynastic Kennedy political brand and his decades of environmental and health advocacy helped him poll as high as 16 per cent nationwide. After facing difficulties getting on the ballot in several states, he accepted Trump’s offer to join forces and pursue his policy goals as part of a broader Trump team.
Following the assassination attempt in Butler, Pa., Trump implored the Biden administration to ensure RFK Jr. also received Secret Service protection. That moment led to a friendship between the two men that culminated in a unity team that soon grew to include Trump’s vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, along with Elon Musk, former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Presidential elections are extremely close. In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan — and, as a result, the White House — by less than 11,000 votes. In 2020, Joe Biden’s presidency was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes across Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
At around 40 per cent of the electorate, independents are a larger cohort than either Republicans or Democrats. They vote on specific issues rather than for a party. This makes them a crucial voting bloc in the seven swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
When Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, the normal gender gap between Democrats and Republicans became even more pronounced, and a major challenge for Trump. Women already make up a slightly larger proportion of the population, tend to favour Democrats over Republicans and are more likely to vote. Their issue priorities are different than men’s, with a persistently stronger focus on health care, child care and education.
Amazingly, Trump’s unity strategy seemed to work. Within a month of joining forces with RFK Jr., AtlasIntel — the most accurate polling firm from the 2020 race — was showing a steady movement of independents and women to Trump. It’s latest poll shows Trump with a narrow lead overall, and a two-point advantage among independents. Results from a poll conducted last week show Trump leading in six of the seven swing states.
How did this happen? The first, most prominent explanation is the “health” factor. Within a week of joining the unity team, RFK Jr. branded his campaign “Make America Healthy Again,” a riff on Trump’s MAGA theme that emphasized strong personal and family health.
The health theme appeals to millions of independent voters, and women in particular. The crisis of chronic disease, obesity and mental health issues afflicting the nation in general, and kids in particular, is hard to overstate. A stunning 20 per cent of American children are now obese.
RFK Jr. has profile on health issues, as he’s been talking for years about whole foods, water safety, health and regulating big pharma. These issues cross party lines and are a strong draw to millions of independents that wouldn’t otherwise vote for Trump.
The second explanation is podcasts. Every few election cycles, a new communications medium confers an advantage to the campaign that adapts to it best. Franklin D. Roosevelt led with radio. John F. Kennedy with TV. Ronald Reagan with direct mail. Bill Clinton with email. Barack Obama with social media, and Trump with Twitter.
Today, it’s podcasts. Run by independent hosts with loyal followers, the long-form format of podcasts tends to be irreverent, entertaining and unstructured. Which makes them hugely popular, and a draw for independents, particularly young men. Joe Rogan’s interview with Trump was viewed nearly 40 million times. The recent ABC poll showed a swing in the support of young men from six points for Harris in early October to five points for Trump by the end of the month.
The health message, and the overall dominance of the unity team messages and personalities on the most popular podcasts, have redefined the Trump campaign over the past three months, moving his favourably ratings, reducing the gender gap with women, increasing it with young men and now leading the polls in most of the swing states.
If Trump wins the election today, he can credit the moment he shook hands with RFK Jr. and began to think of his campaign as a unity team.
If the polls hold, he will lead a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate and House, making Nov. 5 “Independent’s Day.”
National Post