For Donald Trump, the outcome of Tuesday’s election is about more than winning the White House — it’s also about the future of criminal cases that put him at risk of spending time behind bars.
The stakes could hardly be higher. If Trump wins, he could wield the vast powers of the U.S. presidency to shield him from ongoing federal prosecutions. If he loses, he faces the threat of being sentenced later this month to jail time in New York.
Trump has already made it clear that as president he will quickly move to shut down the federal prosecutions, because he will have ultimate authority over the Justice Department. That will erase the threat of decades behind bars. Although the Constitution doesn’t allow him to order state prosecutors to drop cases, he could attempt to delay them indefinitely.
The most immediate legal threat to Trump is a Nov. 26 sentencing by a New York state judge in the so-called hush money case — the only one that’s gone to trial so far. If Trump wins, his legal team will have fresh arguments to try to cancel the sentencing and have the case tossed out entirely.
Trump has denied wrongdoing in all of the cases that state and federal prosecutions have brought against him.
Hush-Money case (New York state)
In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 payment to former adult-film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg alleged the payment was part of a scheme to influence the election by keeping tabloid stories from being published.
New York state judge Juan Merchan delayed the sentencing until after Tuesday’s election. Trump has asked to have the verdict tossed out, arguing the trial included evidence that shouldn’t have been allowed under a new U.S. Supreme Court immunity standard.
In July, the high court held that former presidents are largely immune from criminal charges stemming from official conduct while in office. Merchan said he’ll rule by Nov. 12 on Trump’s immunity argument.
If Trump wins: The judge could call off the sentencing to avoid concerns around the president-elect appearing in criminal court and the case could be adjourned until Trump’s term is over. Trump’s lawyers could also fight have the verdict tossed out in light of an election win.
If Trump loses: The sentencing will go forward, assuming Merchan doesn’t order a new trial on immunity grounds. Trump faces up to four years behind bars, but legal experts say he’ll likely get far less.
Federal Election Fraud case (Washington)
Special Counsel Jack Smith in August 2023 charged Trump with conspiring to reverse the 2020 election results and inciting a deadly riot at the US Capitol.
Trump argued that he’s immune from prosecution because he was president, a fight that made it all the way to the Supreme Court. While the justices broadly sided with Trump, they sent the case back to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to decide if it could move forward under the court’s new immunity standard.
Smith, seeking to keep the case alive, in August filed an updated indictment that removed some details that could be impacted by the SCOTUS ruling, but included the same claims against Trump.
If Trump wins: Trump would likely direct his attorney general to shut down the case. Trump also told a conservative podcaster he’d quickly fire Smith.
If Trump loses: The case will proceed toward a potential trial, with Trump facing the risk of decades behind bars. But the two sides are still arguing over immunity, and depending on how the judge rules, additional appeals are likely. That means any trial could be a long way off, and the Supreme Court may get the last word.
Federal Classified Documents case (Florida)
Smith in June 2023 charged Trump with dozens of counts of retaining national security documents after leaving the White House and repeatedly obstructing US efforts to get the records back.
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case in July after ruling that Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional. The Trump-appointee determined that Congress hadn’t given Attorney General Merrick Garland authority to appoint a private citizen as a special counsel. The government has appealed, arguing the ruling veered from decades of legal tradition upholding the work of special prosecutors in high-profile criminal cases.
If Trump wins: As with the election fraud case, Trump would quickly move to have the prosecution dropped by the Justice Department. That would prevent the appeals court from being able to reinstate the case as the government is currently seeking to do.
If Trump loses: The Justice Department will continue its effort to get the case brought back to life by an appeals court. If that effort works, the case will move toward a potential trial that would include the risk of jail time.
Election Fraud case (Georgia state)
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in August 2023 filed her own case against Trump over the 2020 election based on Georgia state law. The Georgia prosecution accused more than a dozen Trump backers, including lawyer Rudy Giuliani, of participating in a scheme that violated state racketeering law.
The case has also been put on hold until an appeals court resolves whether Willis should be removed because of a romance with one of the prosecutors.
If Trump wins: Trump’s lawyers will likely seek to have the case tossed out on grounds that continuing to prosecute Trump would interfere with his constitutional duties.
If Trump loses: If Willis is allowed to proceed with the case, it could move toward a possible trial. If Willis is removed, the case could be assigned to another prosecutor. Trump has also sought immunity based on the Supreme Court ruling, meaning he could still seek ways out of the case even if he loses the election.