Former Canadiens head coach Michel Therrien would often say a team needs to score at least three goals to win a game in the NHL.
The Canadiens have won only four of their first 12 games this season (4-7-1) and the only game they won without scoring at least three goals was the season-opening 1-0 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Bell Centre. The Canadiens were outshot 48-27 in that game and goalie Samuel Montembeault stole a victory. The Canadiens have failed to score at least three goals in five of their first 12 games.
It’s also hard to win a game in the NHL when your team gives up six goals or more. The Canadiens have done that in five of their eight losses this season.
Through Sunday’s games, the Canadiens ranked 23rd in the NHL in offence, scoring an average of 2.75 goals per game, and 31st in defence, giving up an average of 4.25 goals per game. The only team allowing more goals is the Colorado Avalanche with an average of 4.25.
When a team is struggling both offensively and defensively, it’s very hard to win games and “stay in the mix” for a playoff spot, which was the goal from Canadiens management heading into this season.
“Honestly, I don’t have concern,” Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis said after practice Monday in Brossard when asked what his biggest concern is about his team so far. “I just got to stay the course with this transition in what we’re doing right now. We’re learning to win and, obviously, there’s been a lot of focus on the defensive side of things and the risk-taking. So I’m not concerned and I know exactly our offensive game has dipped and I know why. So I’m not concerned. It’s a little bit of see-saw a little bit and we got to find that right balance. … That’s where we are.”
Through Sunday’s games, there were 124 players in the NHL who had scored at least four goals. Only three of them were Canadiens: Cole Caufield (10), Nick Suzuki (4) and Brendan Gallagher (4). The Canadiens are averaging 25 shots on goal per game, the second-lowest total in the NHL behind the Detroit Red Wings (24.3).
Defensively, the Canadiens are giving up an average of 31.9 shots per game, the fifth-most in the NHL. No. 1 goalie Samuel Montembeault has a 3-5-0 record with a 3.43 goals-against average and a .894 save percentage, while backup Cayden Primeau has a 1-2-1 record with a 4.38 GAA and a .861 save percentage.
There are a lot of reasons for concern.
“As a team we’re in transition (learning to win),” St. Louis said with the Canadiens in Year 3 of their rebuild. “As a coach I am in transition, too, and made it well aware to the players. They’re well aware that I’m in transition as a coach as well. If we’re going to transition as a team, I have to be in transition as well. It’s a big part of this season for me. We’re at a stage now where we’re not at the same stage as two years ago … a year ago. I think when you’re going to a different stage there’s a transition on many levels. Individually, the players, the expectations and the staff as well.”
The Canadiens are three points behind their pace from last season when they had a 5-5-2 record after 12 games and two points behind their pace from two seasons ago when they were 5-6-1. Being “in the mix” this season looks very unlikely and the pre-season knee injury suffered by Patrik Laine certainly didn’t help.
But there are reasons for optimism looking ahead in this rebuilding process because of the play of some of the Canadiens’ top prospects. Joshua Roy has 7-3-10 totals in nine games with the AHL’s Laval Rocket. Ivan Demidov has 6-13-19 totals in 23 games with St. Petersburg SKA in the KHL. Michael Hage has 4-4-8 totals in seven games as a freshman at the University of Michigan. Goalie Jacob Fowler has a 5-1-0 record with a 1.34 goals-against average and a .943 save percentage at Boston College.
The Canadiens will be looking to end a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 17-6, when they face the Calgary Flames Tuesday at the Bell Centre (7 p.m., TSN2, RDS, SNW).
Is Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki concerned?
“I wouldn’t say I’m concerned,” he said after Monday’s practice. “I’m a little pissed off with how we’ve got blown out a couple of times. I think we’re a way better team than what we’ve shown. So I don’t think there’s concern. I know we can find it. Just moving on to tomorrow and just trying to start from scratch. We know we can win these games and we have to do that.”
Easier said than done.
It will certainly help if the Canadiens can score at least three goals and allow fewer than six.