I was in Washington for work at the weekend. And I met and engaged with folk across the political spectrum.
Conclusion? The race between Harris and Trump is too close to call and will go down to the wire. And in the judgement of one very well-informed political academic I spoke to, the result will still be being contested in December.
Now, whoever wins the UK Government led by Keir Starmer will work with that President and the United States.
The US is our most important international, strategic partner. And although the “special relationship” can be oversold, it does bring our nation leverage and benefit.
But I’m not a member of the Government. That ship sailed long ago. And I can say what I believe.
And I believe Donald Trump as President would again be a disaster for the US and very worrying and problematic for the international community and the free world.
Donald Trump as President would be a disaster for the US, Bill Rammell says PAThis is a man who without a shred of real evidence to support him, refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, and incited a riot on Capitol Hill, which saw people killed. Just writing down these words shocks again to the core. This is the stuff of banana republics.
A man who cosies up to dictators whether Vladmir Putin or Kim Jong Un. In the case of Putin memorably believing Putin about what he was doing rather than Trump’s own intelligence agencies.
A man who shows every sign of betraying Ukraine. He says he could resolve the war in 24 hours.
It is virtually impossible to see how he could do that without forcing Ukraine to cave to Russia.
A man who would leave NATO, the body which has protected our security for 75 years, in the lurch. Remember how he said if NATO countries didn’t spend more, Russia could come and get them! He sees every issue in one dimensional and transactional terms, without any appreciation of the broader national interest.
A man who commits casual acts of racism as if it’s the same as drawing breath. Witness his scandalous lies about immigrants eating dogs and cats.
A man whose idea of leadership during the Covid crisis, constituted advising his fellow citizens to inject themselves with bleach.
A man who has already been found criminally guilty in court, and has three further court cases pending.
A man who tragically enabled the repeal of Roe v Wade, obliterating a woman’s right to choose, and endangering the lives of women.
In short, a man totally and utterly unfit to be President of the United States.
What of Kamala Harris? She stepped in very late to replace Jo Biden as the Democratic nominee. She hadn’t come across as a commanding Vice President in a notoriously difficult role. She’s not inspirational. She has however grown into the role. And to use American vernacular, “she whipped Trump’s butt” in the one Presidential debate.
And to put it bluntly, you can only vote for who’s on the ballot. And she is the best of the two by a country mile.
So, what will happen on November 5th?
In recent weeks, the momentum has seemed to be with Trump. Since the debate, Harris’s small, but solid lead has faded, and the two are now tied in the national polls.
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But I was struck when in Washington, reading Cass Mude, a very respected Dutch political scientist who is the Professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia.
He argued persuasively that pollsters have been obsessed since 2016 by “shy Trump voters”.
People who support Trump, but do not say so in polls because of social desirability.
But he observes that Trump supporters are no longer shy and argued that the pollsters were overrepresenting the Trump vote, because they are overcompensating for a dated phenomenon-the shy Trump voter.
By God I hope he’s right.