The Trudeau Liberals are rallying around a campaign that shunned Justin Trudeau, focused on bread-and-butter issues like health care, avoided parental rights, and ousted a weakened, unpopular incumbent facing internal rebellion. Conservatives should be grinning ear to ear.
New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt pulled off a spectacular victory on Monday when she unseated Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs. Holt guided an impressively disciplined, well-oiled campaign that zeroed in on reversing the decline of the province’s health-care system.
Ironically, it was the same message that vaulted the Nova Scotia PCs to an upset victory in 2021, allowing them to overcome a 20-point polling deficit to win a strong majority government and unseat the provincial Liberal government. Health care is in a sorry state across Canada, but is especially dire in the Maritimes. It’s a confirmed losing issue for incumbents, but a potent weapon for challengers.
Many of the most enthusiastic revellers in the aftermath of Holt’s victory are federal Liberals who do not live in the Maritimes, and have taken Higgs’ defeat as a sign that the populist conservative wave is a mirage. Furthermore, many more have taken the PC defeat as proof that parental rights are a losing issue for the right.
Higgs’ PC government became a pioneer by unabashedly championing the principle that parents, not teachers, should have greater authority over what happens in their children’s public schools. It is a power struggle between families and the state, and the battle lines have been sharply drawn along left-right political lines.
Policy 713, legislated and amended by Higgs’ government, mandated that parents must be informed if their children, under the age of 16, change their name or pronouns while attending public school. Further revisions to Policy 713 made clear that if that notification would put the child at risk of physical or mental harm, there would be alternatives offered to keep the child safe.
Self-identification as trans or other LGBTQ identities have risen dramatically among the younger generations, with Gen Z Canadians being seven times more likely to identify as trans or non-binary than those aged 76 years and older. The development of these identities among adolescent children can have enormous implications for the rest of their lives.
It is a valid issue, and it will not go away because progressives want it to.
As the faction that calls itself pro-family, conservatives must continue to bravely engage in battles to protect parental rights. They also must do so in a fashion that dehumanizes no one, and keeps people, especially children, safe. If a child truly feels endangered and fears the consequences of their parents discovering personal changes in their life, they should never be put in harm’s way.
Extenuating circumstances aside, fighting for the principle that parents and families have ultimate power over their child’s development should be paramount for conservatives. To declare that Policy 713 was a major reason for the defeat of Higgs’ government should raise eyebrows, as it was one of his most popular policies. It is more likely that it helped save more PC seats than if it hadn’t existed at all.
And there is evidence that New Brunswick parents do not want their child’s personal development to be in the hands of teachers, who aside from PTA night, are usually complete strangers.
A poll in N.B. showed that voters were at least divided on Policy 713 — 50 per cent supported, 35 per cent opposed, and the rest were undecided. This might explain Holt’s decision to take a halfway-approving stance to the policy change. Holt told Brunswick News in early October that her Liberals would allow all students starting in grade 6, about 12 years-old, to use the names and pronouns they wish at school, without parental consent, as long as it can be demonstrated that they have the capacity to do so.
Parental rights extend far beyond informing parents about pronoun or name changes. Explicit sexual depictions have been documented as present in British Columbia’s public schools, which is unacceptable.
Admittedly, grassroots organizations in B.C. overreached when they filed complaints about these materials with the RCMP, claiming it amounted to child pornography. However, it is still inappropriate content that should be restricted to specific sex education classes among older students.
If such explicit content is enough to slap an R-rating on movies, restricting them to ages 17 and up in theatres, those same graphic depictions should not be easily accessible in public school libraries.
Unlike Holt’s Liberals in New Brunswick, Eby and the NDP have gone toe-to-toe with Rustad’s Conservatives on parental rights and public schools for over a year, with consequences. The northern part of Surrey, B.C.’s fastest growing city, is home to many neighbourhoods where Indo-Canadians form huge portions of the population, or outright majorities.
It is also where numerous ridings that were considered NDP strongholds were unexpectedly flipped by the B.C. Conservative candidates, many of whom are citizens who immigrated to Canada, and made it clear they oppose what is happening in the schools. Immigrant and minority communities have been at the forefront of the debate over parental rights in B.C., and many are not comfortable with the materials and curriculums being introduced.
As surveys show, there is broad support for parental rights across Canada. This is why Holt skillfully dodged or danced around the issue whenever possible during the campaign and kept the focus on health care. She also did everything she could to distance herself from Trudeau’s name.
A poll in N.B. showed that voters were at least divided on Policy 713 – 50 per cent supported, 35 per cent opposed, and the rest answered undecided. This might explain Holt’s decision to take a halfway approving stance to the policy change. She told New Brunswick News in early October that her Liberals would allow all students starting in grade 6, about 12 years-old, to use the names and pronouns they wish at school, without parental consent, as long as it can be demonstrated that they have the capacity to do so.
Blaine Higgs and the PCs did not match the energy or substance of Holt’s strong, health care-focused campaign, and instead made an HST cut their centrepiece.
The PC government were still excellent fiscal managers, and deserve full marks for bringing stability and restraint.
Non-coincidently, this was also one of the calling cards of the Stephen McNeil’s Nova Scotia Liberal government. He had a hawk’s eye for balanced budgets and fiscal stability, only for his successor, Iain Rankin, to be toppled by the underdog Nova Scotia PCs who promised to spend tens of billions to improve the health-care system.
If there is one lesson for Conservatives to learn from Higgs’ defeat, it’s that governing and campaigning like partisan chartered accountants will only take you so far.
Higgs also had a “take it, or leave it” style that alienated much of his caucus, leading to many of his sitting MLAs abandoning his government, while other PCs openly spoke out against his leadership. Such public shows of dissent are horrible optics for a government, and dramatically undermine credibility.
Considering the focus and content of the provincial campaigns in B.C. and New Brunswick, and the recent rebellion in Trudeau’s caucus, the federal Liberals celebrating Holt’s win as a validation of their government is quite something.
Conservatives should indulge them.
The Trudeau Liberals are rallying around a campaign that shunned Justin Trudeau, focused on bread-and-butter issues like health care, avoided parental rights, and ousted a weakened, unpopular incumbent facing internal rebellion.
Conservatives should be grinning ear to ear.
National Post