Like Rishi Sunak before him, Sr Keir Starmer’s headline-grabbing promise to end the small boats crisis is coming back to bite him.
Not only have the numbers crossing the English Channel failed to slow since Labour came to power, they are surging ahead of last year.
Friday marked a particularly grim milestone, where the number of migrants making the illegal crossing surpassed the total for the whole of 2023.
And with more than two months still to go until the end of this year, that total will continue to rack up beyond last year’s figure of 29,437.
We’re likely to see the 2024 total easily reach 35,000 – perhaps even top 40,000 by year’s end.
When the Channel migrant crisis first began in 2018, it was a very seasonal affair.
Home and Securities Editor Mark White has shared his analysis on Labour’s vow to smash the gangs after Channel migrant numbers overtook 2023’s entire total today
PA | GB NEWS
The Summer months were the only time we’d see small boat crossings, when conditions were mostly flat calm.
But as the people smugglers grew in confidence, and became more expert at reading prevailing tide and weather conditions, the number of migrants grew.
And the months in which the boats were launched stretched out beyond the Summer and into Winter.
UK authorities are now faced with a highly sophisticated people smuggling network, worth billions, with well established supply lines, providing them with bigger boats and a willingness to launch them in less than ideal weather conditions.
Dismantling these criminal gangs seems next to impossible, at the moment at least.
It will require a massive law enforcement endeavour that stretches way beyond the current capabilities of Labour’s new Border Security Command.
Major investigations are often months, sometimes years in gestation.
Add to that the fact that the criminals you’re pursuing are predominately overseas, sometimes in countries where the UK lacks robust law enforcement relationships, the task at hand is immense.
Across the Globe, we’ve seen huge efforts by many nations to tackle the scourge of illegal drugs.
And while they have occasional success, with big drugs busts, the international trade in illicit substances is as prevalent as ever.
In truth, the people smuggling trade will prove just as resistant to efforts to dismantle it.
There is simply too much to be made by well established and sophisticated criminal networks for them to easily relinquish their grip on this criminal enterprise.
MORE FROM GBN MEMBERSHIP:
- How Labour is planning to betray Brexit via the back door on freedom of movement
- Charlie Mullins: Britain has gone bat-sh*t crazy – I wish I didn’t have to leave but I fear for UK’s future with Keir Starmer’s crazy-crew
- Reeves will raise taxes because she needs to pay for the cost of new migrants – Sir John Redwood
But that knowledge doesn’t seem to deter the politicians from their bold, frankly unrealistic promises.
For Rishi Sunak, it was “Stop the Boats”, for Sir Keir Starmer it’s “Smash the Gangs”.
For now at least, he can reasonably argue that Labour has only been in power for less than four months.
But the longer he remains in office without the promised progress on ending the Channel migrant crisis, the more pressure will be piled on him and his government.