In the days leading up to the B.C. election on Oct. 19, an astute friend in Vancouver made a point of asking everyone she met how they would vote, and why.
Almost to a person, she said, Conservatives were voting to get rid of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Yes, they thought their provincial vote would bring down a federal leader.
Trudeau wasn’t any part of that election, of course. B.C. doesn’t even have a provincial party with “Liberal” in the name, although it boasts the usual plethora of fringe parties.
(I’m taken by the officially titled “Party of Citizens Who Have Decided To Think For Ourselves & Be Our Own Politicians.”)
In Ottawa on Wednesday, the entire media corps wallowed in the drama of caucus discontent with the prime minister.
The main message from various MPs, during and after a caucus meeting, was that the Liberals are fully united behind Trudeau. But in the background, word was that dissident MPs have given Trudeau until Oct. 28 to respond to their call to quit.
I would suggest, not that they’ll care, that the Liberals cannot under any circumstance be forced into an election.
Their only hope is to survive deep into 2025, praying that the political climate will shift and they will gradually recover.
Meanwhile, Trudeau is only part of their huge problem. And a new leader isn’t their solution.
Today’s political poison for governments is incumbency, also defined as being around too long and failing too often.
Voters in provincial elections are showing they’ve had it with governments that were in charge during the COVID plague, rampant inflation and decaying services, especially health care.
Inflation is falling, but today’s smaller price increases are piled onto the previous large ones. Grocery and housing prices are still rising in the big cities. Health care is a wreck countrywide.
Governments that failed to resolve these crises face revolts, no matter what their political stripe.
New Brunswick is a key example. Blaine Higgs’ Progressive Conservative regime was clobbered Oct. 21 by the Liberals under leader Susan Holt, who becomes the province’s first female premier.
Federal Liberals will paint this as a sign of recovery. A Liberal provincial party won even though federal Liberals are wildly unpopular. Isn’t that a hint of good news for the Trudeau crew?
Not really. Higgs is a dour sort who alienated key groups, especially francophones. He’d been elected for 15 years and was premier for nearly seven, through all the hard times.
He became more deeply conservative as time went on. Maybe that’s a caution for federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
More likely, Higgs was just another politician who failed the big tests. His government was ripe for defeat by any competent opposition, Liberal or whatever.
The B.C. election brought a dead heat between the governing NDP and John Rustad’s Conservatives, a party that barely existed only months ago.
Final results won’t be known until Oct. 28. NDP Leader David Eby could survive as premier, but only with the support of two Green MLAs.
That could pull the NDP even further from the concerns many British Columbians have about drugs and crime. B.C. is in for a time of deep uncertainty that will likely end in doomsday for the NDP.
Which brings us to Saskatchewan, where voters go to the polls Oct. 28; the third provincial election within 10 days.
Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party, proudly and deeply conservative, has often seemed all-powerful. Many expected it to weaken after Brad Wall retired, but Moe has been very adept since he took over in 2018.
Now, he appears to be in serious trouble. A recent CTV poll shows the NDP, led by Carla Beck, running slightly ahead.
Three provincial elections all bring a message to the Trudeau Liberals — don’t let the voters anywhere near you.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald
X: @DonBraid