We learned from research published last week on October 7 and compiled by 18 institutions, including Oxford University’s Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS), that the UK now hosts the largest population of illegal migrants (745,000) in Europe.
The estimated number of illegal migrants in the UK was between 594,000 and 745,000, ahead of Germany (up to 700,000), France (300,000), Italy (458,000) and Spain (469,000).
Good to know, except the information is seven years old, as the note at the foot of the table showing the figures makes clear: “UK data correct as of 2017 MirreM”.
MirreM describes itself as a body that “examines the quantitative dimension off irregular migration and related policies”. In other words, it estimates the number of illegal migrants in various European countries, including the UK.
Some 745,000 is close to the lower end of Pew Research’s findings of 800,000 to 1.2 million illegal migrants in the UK seven years ago. In 2018, we at Migration Watch did our own analysis, with a breakdown of how migrants ended up living here without authority i.e. illegally.
Working on Pew Research figures and on what a number of senior officials had revealed about the likely number of illegal migrants here, our conservative assumption was that the illegal population of the UK was about a million people in 2017/18.
We also estimated 105,000 illegal migrants were coming each year (NB this was before the illegal Channel crossings got going and removals were much higher than they are now). We further estimated an annual average of 30,000 leaving voluntarily or being removed, leaving an annual net 70,000 being added to the illegal population. We erred on the side of caution with our estimates.
Indeed, according to the Daily Telegraph report on the COMPAS figures, “leaked internal Home Office estimates five years ago suggested that at least 150,000 foreign nationals entered the UK illegally each year and then disappeared into the black economy.”
This being so and taking a working assumption of one million illegal immigrants already here in 2017, the number in the UK today is more likely to be 1.5 million or more.
I accept that it’s impossible to be sure about the precise number of illegal immigrants in the UK at any given time. However, it is perfectly possible to estimate the likely figure.
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The ease with which migrants can arrive legally, not leave and slide into the shadows is one reason why the UK is such a magnet for people escaping poverty and hardship, and sometimes conflict, persecution or a criminal history.
Indeed, those who enter legally and overstay know that there is every chance they will be permitted to stay even if they apply for asylum at the point of being found out and are rejected.
For so long as people can work, have access to housing, the NHS, education and move around freely, whatever their immigration status, why wouldn’t they make their way here to escape a difficult life? Some half a billion people in sub-Saharan Africa live in abject poverty.
A billion worldwide would emigrate to find a better life, while about 120 million people have been forcibly displaced. How many should we commit to taking and paying for from the public purse (i.e our taxes)? We are indeed the illegal immigration capital of Europe, and nothing Sir Keir Starmer’s government has done or said so far is going to change that. Anyone who has a mind to make their way to our shores, illegally or legally, for a better life, will not have been discouraged by Sir Keir Starmer’s threats.
The first signal that our new PM sent was to hoist up the welcome flag by hastily abandoning the Rwanda scheme. As for smashing the gangs, there’s not a hope in hell’s chance of that happening. The gangs will continue to laugh all the way to the bank.