The Canada-India diplomatic spat hit a historic low on Thanksgiving when the Trudeau government announced it had expelled six Indian diplomats including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma — a reprimand usually reserved for rogue states rather than ally nations. An equally extraordinary press conference by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police followed soon after. Although its stated objective was to provide more details on the criminal activities the diplomats were allegedly involved in, attendees were left with more questions than answers.
Having likely anticipated these developments, India released a no-holds-barred statement in advance that read more like a legal notice than a diplomatic communiqué. Noting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s antagonistic relationship with India “has long been in evidence,” the statement went on to accuse him of “constantly” and “consciously” pandering to anti-India elements involved in terrorist and separatist activities that undermine India’s national security interests for “narrow political gains.” The scathing nature of New Delhi’s reproach was evocative of how it often calls out Pakistan, its arch-enemy, for being a state sponsor of terrorism.
Claims and counter-claims about the existence of evidence of New Delhi’s alleged transgressions have only served to muddy the waters. Both sides appear unwilling to back down and did not rule out imposing further measures against each other. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly suggested that “everything is on the table,” including the possibility of sanctions against India. New Delhi said it “reserves the right to take further steps” in response to the latest accusations by the Trudeau government.
To be clear, India must face the consequences if found guilty of conducting transnational repression activities in Canada. However, instead of tactfully getting the Indians to play ball like the Americans did after they also accused India of carrying out similar crimes in the U.S., Trudeau chose to irk New Delhi, going public last year about India’s alleged involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Worse, he did so without sharing any “hard evidentiary proof” with India, according to his testimony at the public inquiry into foreign interference last week.
The resulting outcomes couldn’t have been more distinct. While India has chosen not to co-operate with Canada, it continues to collaborate with the Biden administration. It should also be pointed out that the Americans released more detailed evidence in the public domain and served an ultimatum, leaving India no choice but to investigate the alleged foiled plot to kill U.S.-based Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.
It’s no secret that Canada-India ties were fragile even before the crisis unravelled last year. However, Ottawa’s refusal to recognize two key aspirations of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda is exacerbating the situation.
Having come to power in 2014 on the promise that he would boost India’s international standing, Modi did just that by positioning the country as a rising force in an era of global superpower competition and propelling it to become the world’s fastest-growing economy through his “India First” and “Make in India” policies.
By leveraging his strongman image, Modi asserted his government’s zero-tolerance policy on national security issues such as terrorism and separatism, which have ravaged parts of India since it gained independence from the British in 1947. Unlike Canada, India is not blessed with friendly neighbours and allies. Instead, it shares borders with an expansionist China and a troublesome Pakistan, both of whom it has fought against in multiple wars.
The Modi government demonstrated this approach in 2019 when it abrogated Article 370, a piece of legislation that granted a special autonomous status to the terror-riddled state of Jammu and Kashmir. The momentous decision led to a drastic decline in terror activities while boosting significant economic growth in the state.
The issue of Khalistani separatism has historically been dealt with in a serious and non-partisan manner by every Indian government. Moreover, the Khalistan cause — a radical separatist movement that seeks a sovereign Sikh state carved out of India — is a dead letter among Sikhs in India. New Delhi has often alleged that Khalistani extremists in Canada, with covert support from Pakistan, are seeking to sow division to undermine Indian interests, an allegation that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has confirmed is true.
By siding with Khalistani extremists, Ottawa is conflating separatist militancy with legitimate religion and risking the lives of innocent Sikhs who have no interest in the militant movement. The U.K. government-commissioned Bloom Review, which was published last year, found that Khalistani activists exploited government ignorance, threatened and intimidated genuine Sikhs, brainwashed and recruited youth, and raised funds from Sikh temples to promote their movement. The review cautioned the British government that “subversive, aggressive and sectarian actions of some pro-Khalistan activists and the subsequent negative effect on wider Sikh communities should not be tolerated.”
However, in the case of Trudeau, his decision to appease Khalistani extremists is not rooted in ignorance but wilful blindness and partisan gain, considering New Delhi has repeatedly warned Ottawa for decades about the fringe movement’sillicit activities in Canada, including its involvement in the 1985 Air India bombing, Canada’s deadliest terror attack. From watering down a Public Safety Canada report that listed “Sikh (Khalistani) Extremism” as among the top five homegrown terrorism threats to sponsoring a petition that promoted a long-running conspiracy theory that the Indian government was behind the Air India bombing, the Trudeau government has repeatedly infuriated New Delhi with its partisan antics while also undermining Canadian national security in the process.
Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official, accused Trudeau of sparking an international crisis by “mischaracterizing” and “politicizing” American intelligence to justify his allegations that India had a hand in the Nijjar assassination. Rubin added that Trudeau, like his father, Pierre Trudeau, has not only permitted Khalistan militancy to thrive in Canada but also transformed the country into a hub for terrorism and terror financing.
Indeed, it is rather hypocritical of Trudeau to ignore India’s pleas to deal with the Khalistan threat, considering his father invoked the War Measures Act to crush the Front de libération du Québec (FLQ), a militant Quebec separatist group, after it perpetrated a series of terrorist attacks between 1963 and 1970.
Nearly 40 years after the Air India bombing, both New Delhi and the families of the victims have failed to get any sense of justice, following allegations of a bungled investigation by the Canadian police and intelligence services. In one egregious case, CSIS destroyed hundreds of wiretaps of the calls made by the Khalistani suspects, which resulted in their acquittal.
India has struggled to gain traction in the West on the Khalistan issue because the movement rarely poses a direct threat here, unlike Islamist extremism. This is also why countries like India, Israel and others in the Global South accuse the West of duplicitous behaviour. The West is often complicit in ignoring or playing down the security concerns of its allies while it expects accountability from rogue states like Pakistan and Syria for harbouring extremist groups.
Regardless of the Modi government’s alleged transgressions, Trudeau made a terrible miscalculation by picking a fight with India. By doing so, he has inadvertently put the spotlight back on his government’s permissiveness toward foreign interference and transnational crime that are hurting both Canada and its allies. The tepid public response from the U.S. and the U.K. also proves the recklessness of such a move. Ottawa’s wilful blindness to India’s red lines on separatism and terrorism has established that it is prioritizing diaspora politics at the expense of a natural ally.
India is no longer a nominal player in geopolitics. It will let its relationship with Canada disintegrate if it must.
The onus is on Trudeau to clean up the mess he created by forging a fresh path forward with New Delhi if he expects it to co-operate in the investigation.
National Post
Joe Adam George is a national security analyst on South Asia affairs.