New polling suggests former journalist Anthony Furey is leading the race to become Toronto’s newest city councillor.
Voters in Ward 15, Don Valley West head to the ballot boxes on Monday, Nov. 4 to choose the successor to replace Jaye Robinson, who died from breast cancer in May.
Furey, who previously worked with True North and served as comment editor for the Toronto Sun, has a five-point lead over Rachel Chernos Lin, leading with 38% of decided supporters in the Liason Strategies poll.
Chernos Lin, a Toronto District School Board trustee, is polling in second place with 33%.
Of the 16 declared candidates in the riding, the only other candidate to crack 10% of support in the poll was Lindsay Stoyan.
Sam Robinson, son of the late councillor, only managed 6% of decided voters in the poll.
The poll was conducted Oct. 17-18 of 547 eligible Ward 15 voters, with a margin of error of ±4.19%, 19 times out of 20.
Despite Furey’s polling, the high number of undecided voters means the race is still anybody’s game.
“Thirty per cent of the electorate is undecided, and while Stoyan is in third in this survey she is only capturing 2% of the vote among seniors. Conversely, Sam Robinson is at 10% among seniors,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.
“Given that the byelection electorate is unlikely to mirror the general population, we may see Robinson overperform and Stoyan underperform based on these numbers.”
Chernos Lin still leads Furey in terms of support among older voters, Valentin said, while Furey has garnered appeal from younger voters.
Affordable housing ranked overwhelmingly as the top issue in the ward at 29%, followed by traffic (18%), transit (12%), crime (11%) and taxes (7%).
Forty-six per cent of respondents also say the city is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 34% who approve of the current state of city hall.
As well, approval for embattled Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow is also constricted in the riding, commanding a 45% approval rating among decided voters compared to 39% who aren’t as happy with her.
“Sixty-seven per cent of Chernos Lin voters approve of Mayor Chow, while 77% of Furey voters disapprove of the mayor. Meanwhile, almost half of undecided voters approve of the mayor’s performance; 46% approve, 24% disapprove and 31% are not sure,” Valentin said.
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