In 2022 David Eby was handed the power of John Horgan’s thumping 57 seat majority, when Horgan stepped down for health reasons. Saturday night, British Columbians decided Eby didn’t deserve it anymore. Results are incredibly close and recounts are scheduled for several ridings but as it stands the NDP are elected or leading in the most seats with 46, the B.C. Conservatives stand at 45 and the Greens hold the balance of power with two seats. Forty-seven seats are required for a majority in BC’s legislature.
For David Eby there is no way to sugar coat the results: this is an embarrassment and a rejection of him and his failed policies. He may remain premier, but not because British Columbians want him there. Indeed, he holds the dubious distinction of being premier but never actually being chosen by the citizens of British Columbia for that honour; he was given power by Horgan and will only survive with Green support.
Worse, this embarrassing result comes after an election in which Eby fully sold his soul and dumped any semblance of principles in order to hang on to office. Let us not forget that just prior to the election, Eby suddenly abandoned the carbon tax and also did an about turn on involuntary care for people with addictions. As recently as two weeks before his about-face on the carbon tax, Eby had labelled Conservative leader John Rustad a “climate denier leading a band of conspiracy theorists” for his anti-carbon tax stance. But, as the Conservatives rose in the polls and the NDP sank, Eby decided the carbon tax needed to go.
So, all for pure political gain, David Eby jettisoned a core policy he had sworn to defend and about which he had labelled his opponents “climate deniers.” He behaved cynically to remain in power and keep the majority to which he felt entitled. He failed.
Eby now relies upon the Green party to hold on to power. This is the party he openly encouraged voters not to vote for, worried it might split the vote of the NDP. It is also the party which ultimately only cares about one thing, and that’s the environment. It doesn’t take a genius to see what the Greens are going to demand in return for their support: maintaining the carbon tax. To stay as premier he will likely need to pull another switcheroo on the people of B.C. and keep the tax he said British Columbians couldn’t afford.
In his election night speech Eby did his best to put on a brave face, but it was clear he was crushed by the result. The best he could offer was to say that “We don’t know what the final count is going to be in the province, but we what we do know is that there was a clear majority for the progressive values that are so important.” He then vaguely noted that the message to him and the NDP sent by British Columbians was that “we gotta do better.”
We know that had he won a majority, even a slim one, he would have proclaimed that British Columbians had decisively rejected hate and conspiracy theories. After branding the Conservative party writ-large as racist crackpots during the campaign does this mean Eby currently presides over a province which embraced such ideas? The answer is no, but Eby will have to work hard to convince British Columbians he doesn’t actually view many of them as regressive troglodytes.
David Eby may pursue the line that progressive values carried the day, but so what? He can’t blindly assume Green voters are NDP supporters. That’s what losers say. He also wasn’t running on proportional representation. In our electoral system the result is that he sold his principles and political soul in order to maintain power and the people of British Columbia rejected him. There is no sugar coating that.
John Rustad and the Conservatives, elated though they are, must feel a small tinge of regret. While they ran an incredible campaign, which spoke to the affordability issue British Columbians face, it wasn’t perfect. Candidates with very questionable past social media post, for example, inevitably contributed to an overall sense that perhaps the Conservatives weren’t quite ready for government. Those candidates could have been removed prior to the election and the results may well have been an extra seat or two. That’s all it would have taken. Nonetheless, John Rustad — regardless of what lies ahead — will go down in B.C. political legend for taking a moribund party which last election garnered only 1.8 per cent of the vote to within one seat of government in 2024.
British Columbians have rejected the activist David Eby government. He will now have to walk a tightrope with the support of the Greens, who will want their pound of carbon-tax flesh. In doing so, Eby will almost certainly go back on key promises he made to the people of B.C. during the campaign. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will take every opportunity to force another election. The BC legislature situation could hardly be more tenuous, how long can it possibly last?
National Post
Adam Pankratz is a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.