OTTAWA — While Thursday’s successful liquidation of Yahya Sinwar represents a mortal blow for the Palestinian terrorist group, observers say all eyes are on Hamas to see what their next move will be.
Lt. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Conricus, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former IDF spokesperson, told the Toronto Sun that the elimination of the 62-year-old terrorist leader represent a significant turning point in Israel’s war against regional terror.
“If Israel is smart about it, and if Israel leverages the shock of what Hams is now, then this could perhaps mean an end to the war,” he said. “It doesn’t have to, and Hamas can continue at local levels, but if Israel is smart about it, then I think Israel can translate this into victory against Hamas.”
On Thursday, an IDF battalion on ground patrol in Rafah spotted and subsequently targeted three men believed to be Hamas officials.
Fingerprint and dental records from Sinwar’s time in Israeli custody confirmed the terrorist’s death.
“Sinwar concluded his life defeated, chased, fleeing, and not as the commander, but as someone who only worried about himself,” said Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
Changes in the Hamas organizational structure since their attacks of Oct. 7 meant the group is far more vulnerable to strategic eliminations of its leadership than it once was, Conricus said.
“They used to be a decentralized organization that had flexibility without one centre of gravity, but during the war that was reduced — both by Yahya Sinwar himself, who wanted power concentrated with him, and by the fact that so many key figures in Hamas were eliminated by Israel,” he said.
Sitting next in the line of succession, Conricus said, would be Sinwar’s 49-year-old son Mohammed, who currently heads up the Hamas military wing — but in reality this newest power vacuum presents a fantastic opportunity for Israel, particularly in freeing the remaining Israeli hostages.
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“There could be cautious optimism about the chances of getting a hostage deal, or getting the hostages back,” he said.
“Sinwar was, according to the information I have, really was what stood between the hostages and getting them home. He didn’t want a deal, he constantly undermined and made up excuses, delays and new demands, and the fact that he is no longer making decisions would be conducive to getting hostages home.”
Despite Sinwar’s death and his overt ties to Iranian leadership, Conricus doesn’t believe it will have an impact on Israel’s war against Hezbollah or Iran.
“They have exposed themselves as independent enemies who have been killing Israelis and are mortal threats to Israel, and as such Israel will continue to pursue the war against them until Israel is satisfied that it is safe against Hezbollah and Iran,” he said.
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