Post-debate poll shows BC NDP with 5-point lead but tight race in Metro Vancouver

With eight days to go before election day in British Columbia, an exclusive poll conducted for Global News shows the incumbent BC NDP with a five-point advantage.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs after Tuesday’s leaders debate, also suggests the televised sparring match had little to no effect on the race.

According to the poll, David Eby’s NDP leads, with the support of 46 per cent of decided voters, followed by John Rustad’s BC Conservatives at 41 per cent and Sonia Furstenau’s BC Greens at 10 per cent.

However, those results exclude the whopping 21 per cent who say they’re still undecided.

Kyle Braid, senior vice-president at Ipsos Public Affairs, said despite the NDP’s edge, the race is still anyone’s game.

“This is a close election overall,” Braid said.

“And one of the reasons why the Conservatives, even though they are trailing, certainly stand a good chance is the NDP is well ahead in Vancouver Island but the rest of the province, Metro Vancouver, the Southern Interior, the North, it’s very close — there are lots of ridings up for grabs.”

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The poll found the BC Conservatives and BC NDP tied at 46 per cent each in Metro Vancouver, while the New Democrats led the Conservatives 52 per cent to 32 per cent on Vancouver Island and 43 per cent to 38 per cent in the combined regions of the North and Interior.

The poll found the NDP with a 21-point lead among voters aged 55 years and older, while the Conservatives hold a 22-point lead among voters aged 18-34. Among decided voters aged 35-54, the New Democrats held a slight edge, at 43 per cent compared with 41 per cent for the Conservatives.

Braid, meanwhile, called Tuesday’s debate a “non-factor” and a “lost opportunity for the leaders.”

Nearly half (46 per cent) of respondents said they did not watch the debate or don’t have an opinion about the winner.

Twenty-two per cent said Eby impressed them the most, followed by 19 per cent for Rustad and 13 per cent for Furstenau.

“Debates usually don’t matter much — this debate could have,” Braid said.

“This is David Eby’s first debate as leader, John Rustad is introducing himself to voters, but it does look like it was largely a swing and a miss for both, which I think benefits the incumbent. It’s the job of John Rustad to make the case for change, and I am not sure that was made in this debate.”

While the survey provides a snapshot of B.C.’s political mood, as the old saying goes, the only poll that truly matters is on election day.

Early voting is already underway, and election day itself is Oct. 19.

The Ipsos poll was conducted on Oct. 9 and Oct 10 among 1,000 adult British Columbians via Ipsos’s online I-Say panel. The data were statistically weighted according to the Canadian census. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled.