Nothing is certain except death and taxes.
Yet as it pertains to the 2024-25 Maple Leafs season, we would tack on another piece to that old adage: The conversation around the future of Mitch Marner and what the Leafs should do with the skilled winger as he skates in the final year of a six-year contract that has an average annual value of $10,903,000 US.
Once that decision is made, whether it’s during the season or after it, whether it’s to sign Marner to a long-term extension, trade him or let him walk in free agency, the debate will rage on.
Let’s take a dive into Marner’s career with the Leafs and where things stand on the eve of the regular season.
THE CAREER
The Leafs had a good idea what they were getting when they called Marner’s name with the fourth pick in the 2015 NHL draft in Sunrise, Fla., (never mind, Noah Hanifin) and the Markham native, where the regular season is concerned, has produced at or beyond expectations.
When Marner takes his first stride on Oct. 9 in Montreal against the Canadiens in the Leafs regular-season opener, he will do so sitting at No. 8 on the Leafs career scoring list with 639 points in 576 games. Two points will move him past Ron Ellis into seventh and Marner will start 10 points back of Auston Matthews, who is in sixth, and 64 points behind George Armstrong.
Depending on what kind of year Matthews has, Marner could be in the top five in franchise history when the regular season concludes in mid-April. He’s already fifth in assists, requiring 49 to move past Dave Keon into fourth.
There’s no debating whether Marner has developed into a star with the Leafs since his rookie season of 2016-17, when he had 61 points in 77 games. Two years ago, Marner finished with 99 points, the closest he has come to the 100-point milestone.
Marner’s defensive awareness, anticipation and ability to take the puck from opponents put him in the running for the Selke Trophy two years ago, when he finished third in voting behind winner Patrice Bergeron and Nico Hischier in second.
There’s lots of love for Marner in the Leafs dressing room, not only for what he does on the ice, but also his role getting the team together for off-ice functions.
And there’s respect for Marner that carries among opponents across the National Hockey League, something most recently echoed by Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon during the NHL player media tour in Las Vegas in September.
“It’s a hard league to win in and obviously I think Marner gets a lot of flak in Toronto, but he’s honestly one of the best players in the league,” MacKinnon told reporters. “I play with some of the best players in the league and then I skate with Marns and he’s right up there with anyone. Especially at Vail (Colo., camp during the off-season involving NHL stars), there’s a lot of good players and he has stuck out as one of the best for sure.
“He looks awesome. He’s so impressive out there.”
The Marner numbers add up. He is popular with teammates and among his NHL peers.
So why were fans — though not everyone who counts themselves as a member of Leafs Nation — clamouring, if not demanding, that Marner be traded this past spring?
Well …
THE PLAYOFFS
Marner’s output once the post-season starts never has fallen in line with what he has done in the regular season, as he has recorded 50 points in 57 career Stanley Cup playoff games.
Let’s note, too, that Matthews and William Nylander haven’t equalled their regular-season scoring when the playoffs get underway. Matthews has 48 points in 55 playoff games and Nylander has 43 in 54.
Considering the Leafs’ recent habit of enjoying a fine regular season and then getting eliminated in the first round (other than 2022, when Toronto was ousted in five games in the second round by Florida after beating Tampa Bay), the frustration in the fan base is easily explained.
Couple it with the Cup drought that stretches back to 1967 and the fact that Marner, Matthews and Nylander are among the highest-paid players in the NHL yet have nothing to show for it when hockey gets most intense, and that frustration becomes further clear.
It came to a head this past May, though, when the Leafs lost in seven games in the first round against the Boston Bruins.
Of the three forward stars, Marner was the only one to play in each game and had just three points in the series when David Pastrnak burst past him in overtime of Game 7 and beat Ilya Samsonov with a deke after taking Hampus Lindholm’s bank off the end boards.
If that sequence doesn’t happen, if the Leafs prevail and go on to the second round, what came in the days that followed probably wouldn’t have happened. Coach Sheldon Keefe lost his job, giving way to Craig Berube, who was hired less than two weeks later.
THE AFTERMATH
President Brendan Shanahan, after yet another fruitless playoff appearance under his watch, said that “everything is on the table,” leading some to believe that Marner’s time as a Leaf was coming to an end.
And with Matthews having signed a four-year extension the previous August and with Nylander putting his name on an eight-year extension last January, that left Marner, whose full no-move clause kicked in on July 1.
Trade speculation went into overdrive, never mind that Marner said publicly on the day of the Leafs’ exit meetings what he wanted to not only re-sign with Toronto, but remain a Leaf for the long term.
Not long after taking over as Leafs general manager in 2023, Brad Treliving indicated more than once how critical it was to get Matthews and Nylander under contract. A year later, Treliving wasn’t as forthright, at least not publicly, refusing to speculate on Marner’s future while acknowledging the winger was “a superstar in the league.”
Rumours were rampant as the draft in Las Vegas approached at the end of June, but any potential talk of a deal actually happening fizzled.
A photo of Marner and Berube meeting in a coffee shop went viral, with it eventually becoming public knowledge that chats between two went well.
In August, on the day that Matthews was named captain, Marner reiterated what he had said at the end of the season, that he loved being a Leaf and wanted to stay.
LET’S NOT FORGET
Through zero fault of his own, Marner was at the forefront of a couple of off-ice stories that dominated headlines for much different reasons in the past several years.
There was the Mike Babcock/hardest-working Leafs list fiasco during Marner’s rookie season in 2016-17, when the coach had Marner rank the Leafs in work ethic. Babcock then showed the list to some of the veteran players that Marner had lower on the list, a move that took Marner and his teammates aback.
At the time and in the long run, the incident didn’t put Marner in a negative light in the room, as strange as it was.
More recently, Marner and his fiancée Stephanie LaChance (now married) were car-jacked in Etobicoke in May of 2022.
Neither was hurt and Marner took to social media days later to thank teammates, friends and fans, saying their support “meant the world to us.”
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The word around Marner during the summer was that he trained with more determination than ever, ready to come to training camp to push any contract pressure aside with his best season in the NHL.
Trade talk has quieted down, tossed on the backburner as the Leafs start fresh and get accustomed to the coaching style of Berube.
A year ago, Nylander went into the final season of his contract and went on to have his best NHL season, finishing 10th in league scoring with 98 points. In the midst of it, he signed in January after starting with 54 points in his first 37 games of the season. His new pact has an AAV of $11.5 million. Nylander wound up finishing 10th in scoring.
Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, won’t be in any rush to get something done, possibly preferring to let the season play itself out before negotiations become serious.
If that happens, the Leafs might have to walk a balancing act at the NHL trade deadline on March 7 — do they keep Marner or take the chance that he could sign elsewhere in free agency, leaving the Leafs with nothing?
In our recent pre-season Leafs poll, we asked what the Leafs should do with Marner if he is not signed by the deadline. Of nearly 1,000 readers who answered the question, 56.2% said to trade him, with 43.8% voting to keep him.
And 78% figured that playing in the pressure of a contract year won’t have a negative impact on Marner’s production.
At this point, no scenario can be ruled out.
If you argue that the Leafs can’t win, or won’t win, with Marner, recall such NHL stars as Steve Yzerman and Alex Ovechkin. Yzerman was 32 and at the end of his 14th season when he won his first of three Cups with the Detroit Red Wings. Ovechkin was 32, concluding his 13th season, when he finally guided the Washington Capitals to a Cup in 2018.
Having said that, there’s a long list of NHL stars who never won the Cup during their prolific careers, including Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla and Marcel Dionne.
Marner, ranked 23rd on TSN’s most recent list of top 50 players in the NHL (Matthews was third and Nylander was 20th), turns 28 next May. As much as the patience of some in the fan base has worn thin with the Leafs core, Marner’s best NHL days — and those of Matthews and Nylander — are bound to be ahead of him.
Will that result in a Cup at some point? Time will tell.
Marner’s charity work in his hometown has been crucial, raising more than $2 million through his Marner Assist Foundation for children’s care. He routinely brings fans, many clad in Marner sweaters, out of their seats at Scotiabank Arena.
Marner has wanted to be a Leaf since he was a little boy. His dream of winning the Cup in Toronto won’t change as he begins the last year of his contract.
X: @koshtorontosun