OTTAWA — As the federal Liberals reel from a string of shocking byelection losses, new numbers released this week depict Liberal support tanking in Canada’s urban areas.
The Angus Reid polling confirms support for the Liberals plummeting in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas, comparing party support between January 2022 and September 2024 in Metro Vancouver, Winnipeg, downtown Toronto, Toronto’s suburbs, and Montreal.
In Vancouver, the Liberals garnered 40% of support in 2022, dropping nearly half to 21% by September 2024.
Montreal saw a similar dramatic drop in Liberal support, falling from 51% in 2022 to 29% as of this month.
The Liberals were pulling 35% support in Winnipeg at the beginning of 2022, dropping to 23%.
In Toronto, the city’s core saw the Liberals pulling 43% support two years ago, falling 10% to 33% today.
Results were similar in the 905 regions, with support falling from 41% to 31%.
Rumblings of flagging Liberal support in the cities were confirmed after June’s Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection — a historically safe Liberal seat that saw Conservative candidate Don Stewart claim the victory.
That was followed by this month’s humiliating double byelection defeat in Winnipeg and Montreal, losing in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun — another Liberal stronghold — to the Bloc Québécois, and to the NDP in Elmwood-Transcona.
As for national vote intention, only one-in-five (21%) say they’d vote Liberal if the election were held today — whereas 43% say they’d cast a Conservative ballot.
Those intending to vote NDP, meanwhile, sit at 20% — one point below the Liberals and unchanged from the last general election.
Nationally, the affordability crisis remains the top issue for voters, with 58% of respondents saying the high cost of living is foremost in their mind.
That’s followed by health care, which ranked second in all areas except for the Toronto suburbs, which pollsters found the high cost of housing to be their second-most concerning issue.
Other issues on the minds of voters were climate change and the economy.
Angus Reid’s Shachi Kurl told the Toronto Sun the numbers represent a foundational change in Canadian politics from previous elections, when cities were largely considered untouchable Liberal strongholds.
“The Harper Conservatives gave up at that point and acknowledged and recognized that the downtown cores were never going to be there for their party, and their path to victory was to get those vote-rich suburbs, which they were able to convert to their party,” she said.
“This time, you look at the way the Poilievre Conservatives are competitive and even leading in those super-urban centres, that’s the big change and the big difference.”
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