OTTAWA – Over the course of just a few days, the Liberals lost a former stronghold in Montreal, their Quebec lieutenant jumped ship, and the premier of Quebec called on MPs to bring down the federal Liberal government. The Liberal Party of Canada has had bad weeks before. This past week was one of the worst.
“People just don’t like us anymore,” admitted a Liberal official in Ottawa.
Not long after the results were announced in the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun byelection in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with the Liberals losing a riding they had dominated for decades, the verdict was harsh in Montreal.
“The right question to ask is at what time is Justin Trudeau going to resign?” said a Quebec political analyst for 98.5 FM, on one of the most listened-to radio shows in the country. Calls for the prime minister’s resignation are increasingly echoing in his home province, and even in his hometown. However, he said he had no intention of doing so.
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is the kind of riding the Liberals used to easily win. It’s in Montreal, the population is diverse, and volunteers in the riding are numerous and experienced and know how to win. They were able to help former attorney general David Lametti coast to victory by 10,000 votes in 2021. They kept former prime minister Paul Martin’s seat in the same district for 20 years (although the riding underwent a name and boundary change in 2012).
Not this time. They lost by about 250 votes to the Bloc Québécois in a major upset. And the Liberals are indeed upset. Sources speaking on background used words like “depressed,” “demotivated,” “shocked” and “hurt.”
“What we’ve been hearing is that things are better for us in Quebec. But we lost. So, things are bad,” said one Liberal who campaigned for the candidate Laura Palestini in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.
Palestini, a little-known city councillor chosen at the last minute, was a “terrible candidate,” according to one insider.
But the party this week insisted otherwise. “Ms. Palestini worked tirelessly for her community throughout the campaign, knocking on doors and meeting with people every day,” said a spokesperson for the Liberal campaign co-chair. “She was a great local candidate and we would love to have her run for us again.”
Fingers are being pointed at the Liberal national campaign co-chair, Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada. Some have wondered where she was and what she was doing during the campaign. If she was really that involved, how could she have let this defeat happen?
“I don’t take this on myself,” Martinez Ferrada said on Parliament Hill earlier this week.
A source close to the minister told the National Post she has no plans to step down as the party’s national campaign co-chair.
“Maybe the mood is one of resignation, like there’s nothing we can do — that this ship is sinking,” said one Quebec Liberal insider. Others say it’s been like that for months.
And then there’s Quebec’s lieutenant, Pablo Rodriguez, recently minister of transport, who announced Thursday that he’s running for leader of the Quebec Liberal Party. In Quebec, the lieutenant position is essential to facilitating negotiations with the provincial government, but it also plays a role on the party’s strategic level. Some in the party have blamed Rodriguez for the party not picking a stronger candidate for the byelection, and for not doing it sooner. The Liberals handpicked Palestini — knocking out local candidates who had been campaigning for the nomination — on July 19, less than two months before the Sept. 16 byelection.
“The loss must be assumed by everyone. I had no role in the local organization. But I take responsibility because I was on the team that didn’t win,” Rodriguez said.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois continues to eat into the Liberals’ former dominance in the province. The party just won a second seat on the Island of Montreal and is tied with the Liberals in Quebec with 33 seats.
Leader Yves-François Blanchet may have become Ottawa’s most powerful politician this week, days after the NDP tore up its supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals. The Bloc, he said, is ready to extract its own deals in exchange for supporting the minority Liberals. “If it’s good for Quebec, we’ll vote for it. If it’s not good, we’ll vote against it,” Blanchet said.
He also told everyone which Liberals seats he plans on targeting for further upsets. Among them: Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne on Montreal’s south shore; a part of Laval; the Outaouais region; and, for good measure, the Eastern Townships, where the Liberals have two ministers. And he wants Hochelaga, the Montreal-area seat that belongs to Martinez Ferrada, the Liberal campaign co-chair.
“They’ll have to save their ridings,” Blanchet said of the Liberals.
A Quebec Liberal insider suggested that the party should have a national strategy, but also a Quebec strategy, and even a Montreal strategy. Their main rival in most provinces will be the Conservatives. But in Quebec, many think fighting the Bloc will be the bigger challenge.
“The Bloc will never form the Canadian government. People know that. The most important contrast we must make is with Pierre Poilievre,” said Jean-Yves Duclos, the federal minister of procurement and public services and MP from Quebec City.
Duclos was appointed Trudeau’s Quebec lieutenant on Thursday, replacing Rodriguez. That was only hours after Quebec Premier François Legault said he hoped the Bloc would back a non-confidence motion to bring down the Liberal government. The motion is expected to be tabled next week by the Conservatives, but both the Bloc and the NDP said they will vote against it, ensuring its failure.
Legault wants the Trudeau government brought down — immediately — mainly because the province is angry about federal immigration policy.
In Quebec, the media have not been kind to the premier. A headline in the Journal de Montréal read “François Legault just got engaged to Pierre Poilievre.”
In an interview, Duclos did not hesitate to criticize the premier.
“Mr. Legault made a mistake. He will have to answer some tough questions and explain himself,” he said.
“Mr. Legault’s comments must not harm the very good relationship we have built with his cabinet,” he added.
Maybe the Liberals taking on an unpopular and sometimes hostile premier will help them find the footing they’ve lost in Quebec. If not, it may be that even in that province, people just don’t like them anymore.
National Post
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