With nine games remaining and less than seven weeks to go until the final day trip to Blackpool, Bristol Rovers now find themselves in the final strait of a campaign that, up to now, has been a disappointment with League One survival still not mathematically certain.
After the substantial high of beating both Huddersfield Town and Bolton Wanderers within the space of four days, Rovers clearly had limited energy left in the tank as they were dealt the heaviest of their already wincing total of 19 defeats over the weekend, losing 5-0 at Lincoln City for a second consecutive season.
Burton Albion’s 2-0 victory at Shrewsbury Town meant that the Gas’ advantage above the relegation zone of nine points was cut to six. Let’s be honest though, although the severity of the defeat was unforeseeable, a Rovers loss and a Burton win this weekend, considering the fixtures, was very much on the cards.
The Lincoln loss should not set off the alarm bells again but matches against Crawley Town and Mansfield Town have now got slightly more pressure on top of them to ensure that the Gas at least maintain, if not strengthen, their current advantage in the relegation battle.
It’s difficult to stake a claim that any of Shrewsbury, Cambridge or Crawley will have enough to beat relegation now with the current bottom three sides 14, 13 and 12 points adrift of safety. Realistically, Burton are the team to keep an eye on until all four relegation spots are mathematically sealed.
Meanwhile, Northampton Town, Peterborough United, Wigan Athletic, Exeter City and Mansfield Town are all within two points of Rovers still.
Remarkably, the only time that the Gas have dropped into the relegation zone this season was for a matter of minutes when Crawley were beating Exeter in a game that ended 4-4 while Rovers were losing at Stevenage in Inigo Calderon’s first game in charge.
Those two home wins have massively boosted their hopes of survival but the job won’t be done for a matter of weeks at the very least.
Every fan will have a mental total of the points tally that their team will need to reach in order to ensure that they avoid the drop. Generally, 50 points is the most popular total as it is a nice, round number.
However, when has 50 points not been enough for teams to survive relegation in League One and when has the necessary tally been substantially lower?
Only three times in the last 10 fully completed third tier seasons, with 2019/20 curtailed due to Covid, has a team needed in excess of 50 points to survive relegation to League Two with the 2014/15, 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons seeing Notts County, Oldham Athletic and Plymouth Argyle respectively relegated despite each reaching 50 points.
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Interestingly, during that sample size of 10 seasons, the last three terms have required the lowest points tallies for survival with as few as 41 needed in the 2021/22 campaign after Gillingham, Doncaster Rovers, AFC Wimbledon and Crewe Alexandra all failed to pick up more than 40 points. To put that into perspective, Rovers would have been safe by now with their current total of 42 points.
Last season, Burton survived on 46 points with Cheltenham Town (44), Fleetwood Town (43) and Port Vale (41) falling short in a tight battle while Carlisle United (30) looked destined for the drop for a significant chunk of the campaign.
The season prior, Cambridge also survived narrowly with 46 points ahead of MK Dons who had picked up 45 while Morecambe and Accrington Stanley also fell just short with 44. Forest Green Rovers finished bottom with a mere 27.
Points totals needed to survive League One relegation last 10 full seasons
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2023/24: 45
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2022/23: 46
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2021/22: 41
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2020/21: 48
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2018/19: 51
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2017/18: 51
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2016/17: 50
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2015/16: 47
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2014/15: 51
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2013/14: 48
Overall average: 47.8
Considering that the Gas are already on 42 points with nine games to go, they are in a decent position to get themselves over the line. However, they will make the final month of the season far more nervy than needed if they fail to beat either Crawley or Mansfield in their next two matches. Realistically, they should be targeting at least four points.
If Rovers can pick up three more wins, they will have a tally that no team in recent memory has ever been relegated from League One with. Sure, this has been one of the strongest crops of teams the third tier has seen for a long time, but there is only one team that still has a realistic chance of catching up and they will need to keep up a pretty unrealistic rate of winning matches to do so.
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Calderon’s side are also boosted by the fact that five of their final nine games are set to be played at the Mem where their form has been considerably better than away from home. Bar facing runaway league leaders Birmingham City and possibly play-off contenders Reading, Rovers will be expected to beat Mansfield Town, Exeter City and Stevenage on their own patch.
Additionally, if they are going to ensure that they don’t end the season with just three away wins, this weekend’s trip to Crawley is, on paper, their best remaining opportunity to do that.
Elsewhere, Burton have a mixed bag when it comes to their own remaining fixtures while also having the obstacle of a six-point gap to safety.
Gary Bowyer’s side still have to face Stockport County, Wrexham, Huddersfield Town, Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic with three of those games set to be played away from home.
We could also offer further inspection to the remaining schedule of the sides within two points of Rovers but, realistically, if you offered every Gashead a guaranteed 20th place finish now, the vast majority would take it and move on.
The Gas are, as they have been all season, very much in control of their own fate. Keep up their excellent home form and get a rare result away from home and they will certainly be a League One club next season.