Reform UK’s support is holding up despite expectations it would crash after a high-profile bust up between leader Nigel Farage and one of its outspoken MPs, Rupert Lowe.
The spat began when Rupert Lowe called Farage a ‘messianic figure’ and questioned whether he had what it takes to be Prime Minister and turn Reform into ‘more than just protest party’.
Days later Reform UK removed the whip from Lowe, citing two allegations of bullying in his office as well as threats of physical violence against party chairman Zia Yusuf. The latter is now being investigated by the police.
Lowe strenuously denies all allegations, arguing he has been kicked out for ‘daring to challenge Nigel Farage’ and that he has been given no evidence of the claims against him.
The pair have traded vicious criticism of each other online with Farage saying Lowe will never be allowed back into Reform. Today, Lowe launched a ‘final effort’ to rebuild their relationship after Farage ignored an invitation to have dinner.
Since the bust up began, commentators and voters have been quick to point out how infighting to a large extent sunk the Tories and Reform could be heading the same way.
Now enough time has passed since the spat began for the polls to catch up with recent events, and they are looking better than what some predicted.
Reform UK now has four MPs after Rupert Lowe lost the whip
PA
Polls
There have now been four national polls conducted since the Rupert Lowe scandal began.
More In Common: LAB: 25% (-1) – RFM: 25% (+1) – CON: 23% (-1)
JL Partners: LAB: 26% (=) – CON: 24% (-1) – RFM: 23% (+1)
YouGov: LAB: 24% (-2) – RFM: 23% (-2) – CON: 22% (+1)
Opinium: LAB: 28% (=) – RFM: 27% (+1) – CON: 20% (-1)
Three of them give Reform a poll boost of one point while one (YouGov) shows a deduction of two points.
Despite Starmer’s negotiating around Ukraine, Labour dropped two points in one poll, one point in another and stayed the same in the other two.
Taking an average score from the four polls reveals Reform (average of 24.5 percentage points) is still breathing down the neck of Labour (average of 25.75 percentage points) and is ahead of the Tories (average of 22.5 percentage points).
Average national poll scores since Lowe scandal
GBN
Delving into the data behind YouGov’s poll reveals the media storm surrounding Reform UK may have been overblown.
Nigel Farage’s party is still the most popular in the Midlands (27 per cent) and Wales (23 per cent), while it is second in the South of England (25 per cent) and the North of England (26 per cent).
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
EXPLORE: Reform’s regional support
EXPLORE: Reform’s regional support
Gbn
Interestingly, the party’s 12 per cent poll score in the 18-25 age bracket make it more popular than the Tories (nine per cent) but well behind the Greens, Labour and even the Lib Dems.
It is also the most popular party by far in the 50 to 64 age bracket, while it is second only to the Tories in those aged 65 or over.
It comes as many commentators continue to ask if Reform is all bark and not bite, ie the party is recording dominant polling but failing to win many elections.
Critics point to the party only winning 12 of 212 council by-elections since the General Election, a measly five per cent.
Polls have given Reform a national lead, but the party is languishing in fourth place electorally since the July 2024.
Despite suffering a net loss of 35 councillors, Labour is out front with 74 wins, followed by the Tories on 57 (up 22) and the Lib Dems third with 41 (no change).
Farage’s army, despite dominating headlines, has only won 12 contests (up 12), marginally ahead of the Greens on ten (up 2) and the SNP on 7 (no change) who only stand in one country.
It comes as reports Rupert Lowe may now set up his own splinter party to challenge Reform gain momentum.
The Great Yarmouth MP received the backing of world’s richest man Elon Musk in January after Elon Musk said Farage ‘didn’t have what it takes’.
There has been heavy speculation Elon could donate up to £100million to Lowe to set up his own party.
Reform UK has been approached for comment.