Canada faces a seismic shift in world affairs where the U.S., under Donald Trump, is no longer a reliable alliance or trade partner, prompting disarray in the West and posing an existential threat to Canada’s well-being. Stock markets have plunged, inflation is ticking up, and consumer confidence is sagging in the U.S. There is even talk of recession — not the change Trump promised for America.
As Singapore’s Defence Minister, Dr. Ng Eng Hen, said recently, the U.S. has “changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent.” In the words of Singapore’s Senior Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, it is “no longer prepared to underwrite the global order.” It sees itself as being “ripped off” by friends and foes alike.
Germany’s Chancellor-elect, Friedrich Merz, echoed the Singaporeans’ sentiments, saying that judging by its abandonment of Ukraine, the U.S. is largely indifferent to the fate of Europe. He said Germany must move “step by step … (to) achieve independence from the U.S.A.,” seeking nuclear guarantees from France and Britain, if not a nuclear weapons capability of its own. French President Emmanuel Macron has boldly offered France’s nuclear umbrella to all of Europe.
Unfortunately, the Europeans tend to be stronger on rhetoric than on implementation. They are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen Russian reserves that should be transferred expeditiously to Ukraine to facilitate civil infrastructure for energy and manufacturing destroyed by Russia.
Taiwan can only fear it will suffer like Ukraine and be likewise abandoned as the U.S. moves toward a world divided by great powers.
The spectacle of Trump and U.S. Vice-President JD Vance haranguing and lecturing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after he deigned to question whether Trump’s diplomatic skills would ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin would honour any ceasefire agreement, has left a distinct chill throughout the NATO alliance. Pushing Zelenskyy further against the ropes, the U.S. halted military assistance and cut off intel-sharing because of the perceived lack of gratitude displayed by the beleaguered Ukrainian leader. Ukraine was cajoled to agree unilaterally to a 30-day ceasefire. Russia will undoubtedly pocket several concessions already made by the U.S. and press for more.
Instead of projecting strength against the war instigator and criminal, Putin, Trump has signalled desperation to get any deal at any price — a regrettable echo of Chamberlain’s peace deal with Hitler in Munich in 1938. There has been no offer of security guarantees nor reparations for the damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine.
As he has been blatantly extorting Ukraine into a minerals deal, Trump has also been overtly coercing foreign businesses, including Canadian automakers, to relocate and invest in the U.S. to escape his escalating tariff wall.
Trump’s tariff tirades violate not only the USMCA and World Trade Organization agreements but the basic norms that have governed global trade under U.S. leadership for more than eight decades. Canada is blamed on equal terms with Mexico for the scourge of fentanyl sapping American youth. Yet Mexico is responsible for vastly more than the amounts traceable to Canada. The original source is China. The wildly disproportionate targeting of Canada is, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pointed out, “completely bogus.” Yet it will harm Canada irreparably and make us vulnerable to outright annexation. Never forget that the primary reason Canada came together in 1867 was because of fear of absorption by the U.S.
Canada has no option other than to retaliate, continuing to counter resolutely the unjustified Trump tariffs, preferably in concert with all provinces and others like the EU, Japan and South Korea. Giving Americans their own medicine in equivalent measure may elicit more sensible thinking outside of Washington.
Trump went into full bully mode, threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 per cent in response to Ontario’s decision to put a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. Ontario Premier Ford quickly capitulated, suggesting that he had not really thought through the consequences of his action.
To offset our massive deficit on the tourism account, we should levy a 10 per cent tax on Canadian air travel to the U.S. and a $350-per-vehicle surcharge on motorists travelling to the United States. The proceeds could alleviate some of the damage being caused by Trump’s tariffs.
We must immediately initiate drastic policy changes at home to recover from a decade of stagnant growth and fads that failed to serve the national interest, and promote a much stronger economy by expediting the development of our energy resources and pipelines west, north and east — which will enable us to diversify to markets in Europe and Asia — using national emergency provisions to override predictable obstacles.
An early election is essential and, as Jack Mintz wrote in these pages last month, the choice is between one plan “to develop our resources, including oil pipelines and LNG plants,” or another plan “to stiffen our climate policies to quicken the energy transition toward renewables.” The former should play better on the hustings than with elites in Davos. Given our dismal productivity performance, a new government should quickly reduce by 20 per cent the size of our non-military civil service — sadly the fastest growing sector of our economy.
We need to bolster defence spending, as most of Europe is now doing. The pathetic nature of our defence posture is the one legitimate complaint the U.S. administration has about Canada. Priority should be given to the Arctic, where Russia has reportedly installed more than 50 military bases, including 13 airbases, 10 radar stations and 20 border outposts, and China is increasingly active with a massive buildup of its navy. If we want to distract Trump from tariffs, we could increase our purchases of F-35s by 50 per cent, providing him with a “win” and giving us a real capacity to defend our North.
Trump’s narcissistic “America First” posture will increase nuclear proliferation from countries like Japan and South Korea, as well as Germany. Canada certainly has the technological expertise to join the trend.
Despite all the negative fallout, the one positive thing the U.S. president’s erratic antics have evoked is a powerful outburst of patriotism and national unity in Canada. That is something worth celebrating even on the darkest days.
National Post
Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989 to 1993.