Anyone following the on-again, off-again trade war between Canada and the U.S. will have seen potash mentioned among major Canadian exports to the U.S. subject to President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.
But what is potash and why is it integral to the neighbouring nations’ trade relationship?
Here’s a guide to understanding the rare earth mineral and its part in the dispute.
What is potash and what is it used for?
Potash is a group of minerals and chemicals that contain potassium – K on the periodic table. Its main form, after deep-earth mining and milling, is as potassium chloride (KCl), almost all of which is used as a fertilizer to improve crop root strength, disease resistance, water retention and yield by protecting and restoring soil fertility, making it essential to global food security.
Small amounts are sometimes used in other products like detergents, soaps, water softeners, snow and ice melters, and pharmaceutical products using it as a potassium compound — often an acetate or chloride used to treat low potassium (hypokalemia).
Where is potash found in Canada?
Canada is the world’s biggest producer, exporter and holder of the largest reserve at 1.1 billion tonnes and almost all of it is in Saskatchewan, home to the Prairie Evaporite Deposit, the world’s largest known.
They were formed about 400 million years ago when inland seas dried up, “leaving behind layers of common salts that trapped precious minerals in the seafloor,” according to natural resource advocacy group Canada Action.
All 11 active mines in Canada are located in the prairie province known as the country’s “breadbasket” for its farming formidability.
Of the 67.5 million tonnes produced globally in 2023, per Natural Resources Canada, of which the country’s nearly 22 million tonnes represented 32.4 per cent.That had an export value of US$9.44 billion, per the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
According to the latest Statistics Canada data, tonnage increased to close to 25 million in 2024, worth roughly CA$8 billion.
Where is potash found in the world?
The only other significant players in the potash market at this time are Russia and Belarus, but as of 2023, their combined output only just eclipses that of Canada.
Both countries have seen their production drop since the invasion of Ukraine destabilized the industry and sent prices surging globally. Prices have returned to near normal and stabilized since.
China, Israel, Germany and a handful of other nations are small producers.
Global production capacity was over 65 million tonnes in 2024 and a 2025 U.S. Geological Survey report predicts it will hit 76 million tonnes by 2028.
Very little potash mining occurs in the U.S., but the survey notes domestic deposits totalling approximately seven billion tonnes.
How much does the U.S. rely on Canada’s potash?
The U.S imports 90 per cent of the potash its farmers need annually and 85 per cent of it comes from Canada. Almost half of the product out of Saskatchewan in 2023 went to the U.S. market.
The OEC valued the international trade at US$3.66 billion.
The U.S. gets about 11 per cent of its potash from Russia.
What’s happening with our potash amid the trade war?
As tariff talk intensified in the new year and in the one-month delay through February, American farmers have been stockpiling potash in an effort to alleviate some of the near-term sting.
“There has been a concerted effort in recent weeks and months to move product across the border just in case tariffs were implemented,” StoneX vice-president of fertilizer Josh Linville told Bloomberg this week.
In a statement to the National Post, Nutrien, the largest of Canada’s big three potash producers alongside K+S Potash Canada, and Mosaic Company, said it, too, had “moved as much potash south of the border as possible ahead of the spring planting season.”
What are U.S. officials and organizations saying about the tariff on potash?
Thursday, in announcing an overall delay and a carveout for goods shipped under the existing Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, Trump offered farmers a small reprieve by also reducing the import tariff on Canadian potash to 10 per cent instead of the promised 25 per cent.
In a press release, newly-appointed U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins called it “a smart, strategic move” and said “Canada must commit to fair trade practices — including those in dairy, eggs, and poultry.”
The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) and the American Farm Bureau (AFB), both of which had expressed concern about undue hardship on their respective memberships and pleaded with the president to change course, expressed gratitude when he did.
Potash could replace oil exports as Canada’s next card in a U.S. trade war
“As the important spring planting season kicks off on farms around the country, the President’s recognition of the critical nature of fertilizers will ensure growers have access to the vital crop nutrients that make possible bountiful harvests and profitable grower operations,” TFI CEO and president Corey Rosenbusch stated in a press release.
AFP president Zippy Duval wrote that the organization acknowledges the value of “levelling the playing field” of trade but said “farmers and rural communities often suffer from tariff retaliation.” It wants the U.S. to settle its trade beefs with Canada and Mexico so farmers already facing “a third straight year of losses on almost all major crops” don’t suffer further.
In an interview with the Globe and Mail, TFI senior economist Veronica Nigh said a 10 per cent tariff “will still lead to higher fall potash prices.”
What is the position of Canadian entities on tariffs?
While there’s no potash mining in his province, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bullish that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe should restrict the product’s flow to the U.S.
“You know, Donald Trump wants to go after our dairy farmers. Without potash down there, they don’t have a farming system,” Ford told reporters Tuesday.
In a statement, Moe said Canada’s response to the tariffs must be “economically sound and reasoned” and his province was considering its next moves.
As for Nutrien, the company said it’s working with both federal governments, the province and stakeholders to raise concerns about a tariff it believes will be borne by farmers.
In a fireside chat with the Bank of Montreal last week, President and CEO Ken Seitz said, “if you look at where the potash price is today on the sort of global cost curve, while it’s firming, certainly there wouldn’t be many producers that could absorb a 25 per cent knock from a tariff.”
Fertilizer Canada echoed many of the same concerns and warned that the tariffs will “distort the U.S. market in favour of countries such as Russia and China, who do not operate under the same environmental, human rights and trade practices, undermining the critical trade goals of each of our countries,” it wrote in a statement to the National Post.
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