The results of a BBC analysis of the UK death rate are “pretty poor” according to analysts, after they show only gradual improvement in the long-term. The research, carried out by analysts from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, looked at death certificates registered in 2024.
Experts found that the deaths per head of the population had returned to pre-pandemic levels. Analysts also found that deaths per head were slightly below the previous record in 2019, before the pandemic. However, this research signals a trend of only slight improvement.
Stuart McDonald, an expert from the CMI, said: “This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement, it’s pretty poor by historical standards.” He added that the rise in death rate at young working ages was “concerning.”
A spokesperson from the Department of Health said the government was “shifting focus from sickness to prevention”.
From 1974 to 2011, the registered death rate has steadily halved thanks to improvements in tackling heart disease, such as smoking prevention and medical advances. However, improvements significantly slowed from 2011 to 2019. When the pandemic hit, the death rate drastically changed as people died from the virus.
Now, the latest data shows the UK has a figure of 989 deaths per 100,000 people.
“Clearly, it’s very good news that our mortality rate is lower in 2024 than it was,” explains Dr Veena Raleigh, epidemiologist at health think tank The King’s Fund. “But if you look at the broader canvas then it’s not so good.”
The UK’s flat improvement rate since 2011 has been more severe than out countries. Dr Raleigh adds that our life expectancy is as the “bottom of the pack of comparable countries, adding that Spain returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.
Researchers say there are a range of reasons for the slowdown in death rate improvements, such as improvements in heart disease already happening, making further gains harder. Additionally, rising risk factors such as obesity, low exercise levels and widening inequality could be behind the slowdown.
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease is the leading cause of death in England and Wales, according to latest figures. Heart disease and lung disease are also leading killers.
Professor Bryan Williams OBE, chief scientific and medical officer at the British Heart Foundation, said: “The plateau we have seen in reducing the number of deaths… is a serious cause for concern, made worse by the impact of the pandemic on an already overstretched health service.”
He added that in the most deprived areas of England, early deaths from cardiovascular disease had grown. He called for “urgent government action” in its prevention, detection and treatment.
The CMI also found an upward trend in mortality among 20-44-year-olds. The age group made up roughly 3 per cent of all deaths.
“External and substance-related causes are most important because often that’s what people die of in this age group,” says Antonino Polizzi, researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, at the University of Oxford.
“Things like drug overdoses, alcohol-related deaths, accidents, homicides and suicides.”
Speaking on the findings across all age groups, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “We inherited an NHS that was broken and we are determined to fix it.
“Through our Plan for Change we are shifting focus from sickness to prevention and targeting the drivers of ill health and catching the biggest killers earlier.
“We are creating the first smoke free generation, stopping junk food ads being targeted at children and improving detection of diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease.”