Jagmeet Singh wouldn’t listen in 2022 when it was suggested propping up the Trudeau Liberals wasn’t a good idea.
Trudeau was not a popular leader. His days as the shiny new face in Ottawa were well behind him. At the time the “supply and confidence agreement” was reached the country had just endured an ill-timed election, called by the prime minister two years before it was due in hopes of leveraging the COVID-19 crisis into a majority government. The gambit didn’t work and Trudeau was handed another minority, almost identical to the one he’d already had.
It was a clear message that voters felt the government hadn’t done anything to deserve four secure years in power and should get on with the job using the tools it had been given. Pledging to provide the certainty Canadians had just withheld put Singh in a precarious position. He was coming to the aid of a rival party about which voters had obvious misgivings. Liberals would do their best to claim credit for any popular results from the pact while New Democrats would be left looking naive and outmaneuvered.
There was even an historical precedent: Former NDP leader David Lewis rescued an earlier Liberal minority regime in 1972, delivering safety from defeat to Pierre Trudeau in return for promises of policy concessions, only to have Trudeau call an opportune election two years later and gain a new majority while New Democrats lost half their seats. Lewis lost his own seat and the leadership as well.
But Singh wouldn’t listen.
Now the NDP leader finds himself heading into an almost certain spring election deep in third place and sinking in the polls while the newly Trudeau-less Liberals gain ground. The Angus Reid Institute says data shows New Democrats have lost half their intended voters since late December. Among leaders and prospective leaders — including Liberal candidates Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland — Singh has the lowest favourability rating.
A CBC poll tracker reports NDP support is down to just 14 per cent from 19 per cent in January. Another tracking site suggests Singh could be left with as few as 11 seats, below the minimum required for official party status.
From Day One, Singh faced warnings he’d rented out his party too cheaply. In return for a pledge to show favour to NDP priorities, Trudeau was able to pretend his bad election result hadn’t happened. The pact was to last until June of this year, just before a new vote had to be called. Barring a blow-up, Liberals could be sure of three more years of relative safety from defeat, including four budgets and what a statement from the prime minister’s office identified as “no surprises.” Trudeau retained the ability to cancel at any time and call an election should his fortunes improved.
Singh can argue he successfully squeezed out important legislation from the arrangement. A $13 billion dental care plan was launched in 2024, initially covering about one million seniors with other groups to be added later. The plan is far from universal, covering a portion of costs for a range of treatment depending on family income for those lacking private insurance. A promised pharmacare pledge proved harder to collect on as Liberals passed for an extension on the initial deadline, prompting Singh to threaten he’d withdraw his support unless an acceptable bill was produced by March of last year. Agreement was eventually reached on a limited plan that centres on drugs for diabetes and contraception at an additional cost to governments of about $11 billion in the first year.
Parliament also passed a ban on replacement workers during contract disputes and pledged new protections for renters against rent hikes and evictions. While all parties backed the anti-scab law and Canadian rents continue to set record highs, New Democrats see those and other policy actions as real achievements.
Nonetheless, as predicted Liberals claimed credit while Singh found himself issuing a series of increasingly acerbic remarks about the frustrations of dealing with the Liberals, finally announcing in September he was cancelling the deal.
“Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don’t deserve another chance from Canadians,” he said, informing Trudeau’s office of the decision just eight minutes before revealing it in a video.
At the time Liberals looked to be on the ropes, stuck with an unpopular leader while facing an angry electorate. Since Trudeau announced his departure in January, however, Liberal fortunes have risen substantially while New Democrats have plunged. Singh has recently turned his guns on Carney, considered Trudeau’s most likely successor, touting him as just another rich-man-in-government, “cutting services people count on and handing out more to the billionaires.”
“I’ve asked Canadians this question, and I encourage folks to make this reflection themselves, ‘is your life better or worse after nine years of Liberals being in power?’” he demanded during a recent appearance in Edmonton. “Is it more expensive or less expensive to buy a home? How about grocery prices, have they gone up or gone down? On each of these points, Canadians’ lives are worse after nine years of Liberals.”
He’s got every right to make the point, of course. On the other hand, the Liberals might not have had the time and opportunity to do their damage if the NDP hadn’t ensured them a three-year safe haven.
National Post