Little has changed in the Ontario political landscape following Thursday’s provincial election. Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford is still the Premier — securing a near historic third majority term — and the opposition parties are more or less exactly where they were when they started. What does this all mean then for the average Ontarian? And what can we expect over the next four years?
For those who watch the ups and downs of electoral politics with great interest, there was certainly drama unfolding at the seat-by-seat level. The most noteworthy upset was in Mississauga-East Cooksville, where Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie failed to win her own seat. It’s a swing riding that’s been held by the PCs since 2018. Crombie must have felt that, as the former Mayor of Mississauga, she could swing it back. But no such luck.
Crombie is vowing to stay on as leader, but time will tell if the party membership supports that decision. She will have to face a leadership review at the next annual general meeting of her party.
More broadly, the election results were a vote for stability. There is considerable change and uncertainty all around us. The federal political landscape is currently in disarray. The international scene is facing considerable disruption. And the economy has been in rough shape for some time now, with the possibility of tariffs from the Trump administration threatening to greatly worsen the situation.
Doug Ford has consistently been focused on economic development and job creation since the day he became Premier. He famously posted those “Open For Business” signs at the physical boundaries of the province when he first won in 2018. He’s never really wavered from this focus.
The justification for calling this election a year earlier than scheduled was that Ford needed a secured mandate to remain a steady hand on the tiller. That’s exactly what he received.
Voters were clearly feeling the instability around them, especially the threats from south of the border, and had little interest in any more uncertainty. The trendline throughout many Western democracies has been to toss out the incumbents. It’s that inertia that led to the resignation announcement of Justin Trudeau. Change was everywhere, tumbling towards us from all directions, but the Ontario election is where change came to a sudden halt.
While Ford has secured his mandate, it’s a rather narrow one. Voters have been clear that he is the leader best positioned to manage the economy in the face of whatever turbulence the Trump administration brings. What does this mean though for all of the other major files that the province touches upon?
Health care and education in Ontario are in disrepair. They have been slowly but surely worsening on multiple indicators. Whether it’s the long waits for medical treatment or the declining test scores and safety problems at schools, the Ontario government’s biggest ministries are also some of its worst performers.
Let’s hope Ford uses some of his strengthened political capital to bring about meaningful change on these core issues. The previous Liberal government presided over the decline of these issues. It would be a truly noble legacy for Ford to leave office having greatly improved the quality of healthcare and education.
The Ontario PC Party is blessed to have something of a blank slate term ahead of them. Anything is now possible. The potential for creative solutions abounds. The Ontario PC Party should be energized by this scenario.
The NDP and Liberals won’t be in the best of shape to mount robust opposition to the Ford government for the foreseeable future. They will instead be caught up in leadership reviews and soul searching.
Ford’s mandate is not linked to specific policy proposals, but to the general idea of responsible management of the province. Ford will without a doubt show leadership on the economic development front, but he now has an opportunity to do this with most other issues as well.
There are those who will claim that the fact this early election didn’t produce any significant changes means it wasn’t worth it. But in many ways the electorate made a strong statement by voting for stability.
National Post