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After a dramatic weekend and a midweek round of games the end-of-season picture is coming into place.
Arsenal losing to West Ham on the weekend and then drawing Nottingham Forest midweek, then Liverpool beating Manchester City followed by Wednesday’s win over Newcastle has left the Reds with a 13-point bulge at the top. Liverpool has 10 games left, Arsenal 11.
At the bottom it looks to be one of the more undramatic relegation fights in years. The three promoted teams, Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich, look all but doomed already with a five-point gap between the drop zone and 17th-place Wolves, then a 13-point gap to 16th-place West Ham. Unless Wolves completely implode, it’s a yo-yo season for all the promoted teams.
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Which leaves the Champions League spots.
The top four teams get in and entry into that competition not only brings significant funds to upgrade talent over the summer, but it’s also a great selling point on bringing in the top talent. And this season’s scrap for those seats is shaping up as one of the best ever.
There’s the usual suspects, the so-called Big Six who for years jockeyed for those top-four positions — Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United.
Two years ago, Newcastle crashed the party and last season Aston Villa got in and is sitting pretty with a two-leg round of 16 clash with Club Bruges between it and the quarterfinals.
While Villa still is in the mix to get into next year’s tourney, it has work to do and lots of teams to fight.
From third-place Nottingham Forest down to 10th-place Villa, that’s eight teams fighting for two spots all jammed into a five-point gap.
The teams in with a shout are Nottingham Forest (48 points) Manchester City (47), Chelsea (46), Newcastle (44), Bournemouth (43), Brighton (43), Fulham (42), Villa (43).
Two of the so-called “Big Six,” United and Spurs, are so far off the pace you can’t consider them. There’s a glimmer of hope still for Brentford and Crystal Palace in 11th and 12th, though Palace is 11 points off that fourth-spot, which is probably a bridge too far.
So, who’s most likely to get in?
Forest are the one people will be watching because they’ve had such a leap this season after finishing 17th last year, just six points above relegation. The Tricky Trees have gotten to this point with a stout defence and timely goals from Chris Wood.
Their next Premier League game is a huge one, hosting Manchester City, but the rest of their schedule is quite manageable. Their last game of the season is at home vs. Chelsea, which could be massive.
Manchester City will be desperate to not miss the Champions League, though there’s still a chance it could with a points deduction for their pending 115 financial violation charges.
City’s squad has aged like milk left out in an August heatwave. Their new signings are taking time to fit in, they’re struggling for goals and their defence is patched together with old chewing gum and matchsticks.
Other than that things are great. They’re finished with Arsenal and Liverpool, they have a big match in March at Nottingham Forest and they face most of the teams chasing them — Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth — but they also face three of the bottom four clubs.
Chelsea sits in fifth at the moment, but has lost three times in their past five. They’ve stumbled this year with only three wins in their past 11 games going back to mid-December. They have a big squad, but have had problems scoring since Cole Palmer went cold, their 4-0 win midweek over dreadful Southampton excepted.
Chelsea has a fairly soft schedule, but does have a huge game at Arsenal up next and have to go to Forest. The Blues do host Liverpool, but the Reds could have the title wrapped up by then.
If it’s close, Newcastle’s run-in will be the most fascinating. The Magpies’ form has been so up and down, looking elite one week and like a team crumbling under pressure the next. Before finishing off with Everton at home, they have to go Villa, then a gimme vs. Ipswich, but then at Brighton, home to Chelsea and away to Arsenal. At least it will be in their own hands.
Bournemouth has been a great story and has a decent schedule. There’s a three-game stretch in May where the Cherries go to Arsenal, host Villa and then go to Manchester City. If they can win those three, they probably get in.
Brighton had been struggling below expectations (they went winless in eight — two losses, six draws — from November-January) but have come on strong lately having won three in a row and five of the past seven. The Seagulls have to go to City mid-March and then host Villa. Other than that, their most difficult game is Liverpool at home, but it’s the penultimate match and may not mean anything to Liverpool.
Fulham may seem like the longest shot, but they’re only four points off the pace at the moment, though they probably have the toughest schedule. They have to play away at Brighton, Arsenal, Bournemouth and Villa and host Liverpool, Chelsea and City. They’re going to need to win against most of those big boys to get in.
Villa has put itself in a tough position to get back into the Champions League, especially as the Villans have to manage difficult games as they’re still in this year’s tournament. They have a four-game stretch in late-April into May — Newcastle (h), Man City (a), Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a) — that’s going to be crucial to make up ground and qualify again.
For now at least some of the teams get a breather as it’s an FA Cup weekend as the Premier League takes the week off.
This weekend’s FA Cup slate
Friday: Aston Villa vs Cardiff.
Saturday: Crystal Palace vs Millwall; Preston North End vs Burnley; Bournemouth vs Wolves; Manchester City vs Plymouth.
Sunday: Newcastle vs Brighton; Manchester United vs Fulham.
Monday: Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich.