Ontario Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives appear to be well on their way to victory in this Thursday’s election. They’re leading in opinion polls by an average of 40 to 44 per cent — and are ahead of Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals by 10 points or more. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, the PCs will form a third successive majority government and may achieve a small increase in their total number of legislative seats.
Will Ford govern in a similar fashion to before? Much of this will depend on whether he decides to channel his hidden inner fiscal conservative.
The PC platform released on Monday certainly didn’t scream “tax-cutting agenda” or “prudent government spending” right off the bat. It contained $40 billion in campaign promises, with nearly half of them focused on measures to help deal with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian products.
There’s a $5-billion promise to set up a “Protect Ontario Account” to provide financial support programs for industries and workers, with an additional $10 billion allocated for struggling employers to obtain a six-month provincial business tax deferral. There would also be up to $3 billion in payroll and premium relief for employers and small businesses, up to $40 million to establish a Trade-Impacted Communities Program for municipalities and up to $120 million for bars and restaurants to increase the LCBO wholesale discount from 10 to 15 per cent.
There are non-tariff-related promises, too. The PCs would spend $1 billion to expand the Skills Development Fund, $705 million to expand the capacity of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) and skilled trades training in post-secondary education, $3 billion in loans to assist First Nations in investing, an additional $743 million to address health care staffing needs and the elimination of the floor price for liquor.
Ford’s proposed tunnel under Highway 401 is also mentioned in the platform, though its cost is not.
In fairness, all of the major parties proposed enormous amounts of public spending in this election that would cost Ontario taxpayers a pretty penny. The difference is that the right-leaning PCs are supposed to be, in theory, those who believe in small government, low taxes and keeping government spending to a bare minimum.
A few silver linings can be found in the platform for those on the side of fiscal prudence, although they may seem a bit faint.
Ford decided to call this snap election to ensure he had a proper mandate to deal with Trump’s tariffs. (He had already achieved this by winning 85 out of 130 seats in the 2022 provincial election, but I digress.) If these tariffs never materialize, are introduced at reduced rates or are implemented on a short-term basis, billions of taxpayer dollars in the PC platform won’t have to be spent. That would please many Ontarians. Since Trump’s second presidential term has just started, it’s far too early to predict what will happen.
Some of the PC government’s campaign promises may never come to fruition. The day-to-day grind of running a government leads to new challenges on the domestic and international front, and bears witness to many unforeseen changes in the political and economic environment. The promise of new spending in an election isn’t the same as money being specifically earmarked in a government budget, either. Left-leaning and right-leaning governments have had to scrap measures contained in party platforms in the past, so the Ontario PCs would be no different in this regard.
Ford also wants to leave behind a positive legacy as a successful premier. No matter if he stays in provincial politics for the rest of his career, or jumps into the federal arena in the future, he doesn’t want to be remembered as a fiscally irresponsible leader. Hence, the next four years will be crucial for him to ensure that his good work during the first two majority governments doesn’t dissipate in the blink of an eye.
This means the premier’s link to fiscal conservatism has to resurface. It’s a component of his guiding philosophy, Ford Nation, along with populism and retail politics. Ford has supported small government, lower taxes, fiscal prudence and cutting bureaucratic waste during the vast majority of his political career. He also firmly believes in private enterprise, greater individual rights and freedoms, standing up for the little guy, giving power back to the people and building political bridges with supporters and critics alike.
It’s fair to say fiscal conservatism has taken a back seat during Ontario’s snap election. No one expected the Liberals, NDP and Greens to pray at this particular altar, but there had been some hope that the PCs would pay a small amount of lip service. Alas, some right-leaning individuals and organizations have had serious doubts about this government’s long-term commitment to fiscal responsibility.
These include the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, which wrote last spring that “six years into Ford’s time on the job, any excuses for his fiscal fiasco fall flat. He has vastly outspent the Liberals, jacked up the debt and won’t balance the budget despite $55 billion in revenue growth.”
Fortunately, there’s plenty of time to reverse course. Ford’s third majority government seems as good a time as any to set Ontario’s wheels in motion back to fiscal conservatism. Let’s hope the premier does just that.
National Post