What is the No. 1 reason the Canadiens are likely to miss the playoffs again this season (for the fourth year in a row) and what can be done to change that for next season?
Moshe on X — @moishier
Going into Year 3 of their rebuild I didn’t think the Canadiens were good enough to make the playoffs even if they had a healthy Patrik Laine to start the season. Before the season started, I wrote goaltending and a young defence were my two biggest concerns, and the Canadiens have given up an average of 3.40 goals per game, which ranks 29th in the NHL. Only the Chicago Blackhawks (3.46), Pittsburgh Penguins (3.52) and San Jose Sharks (3.72) allow more goals. A young defence is the No. 1 reason the Canadiens are likely to miss the playoffs again.
The Canadiens rank 16th in the NHL in scoring, averaging 2.91 goals per game. Laine went 10 games without a goal, which is a reason why the team was 2-7-1 during that span, before he scored a power-play goal in Saturday’s 5-2 win over the Senators in Ottawa. The injury to defenceman Kaiden Guhle (lacerated quadriceps muscle) that has likely ended his season was huge.
The arrival of Ivan Demidov next season should give the Canadiens a big boost offensively. The 19-year-old forward, selected fifth overall at last year’s NHL Draft, has 19-28-47 totals in 57 games this season with SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL. Goaltending and a young defence will likely be question marks again heading into next season, which is why I think the Canadiens are at least two years away from becoming legitimate playoff contenders.
It will be interesting to see if goalie Jacob Fowler decides to turn pro or stay for a third year at Boston College, where he has a 22-5-1 record this season, along with a 1.73 goals-against average, a .936 save percentage and six shutouts.
Do you think the Habs will make the playoffs this year?
CobraKaiFan_4_Forever on X — @AlyssaH89923174
No.
The Canadiens were still five points out of the final wild-card playoff spot after Saturday’s win over the Senators, who hold the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.There are four other teams between the Canadiens and the Senators and it’s hard to leapfrog that many teams with only 25 games left in the season.
Last season, it took 91 points to get into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which was a low number. To reach 91 points this season, the Canadiens would need 34 points over their final 25 games — a record equivalent to 16-7-2. I don’t see that happening.
When do we trade Mike Matheson?
Mark Berry @markberrytweets
I’d be surprised if Canadiens GM Kent Hughes trades Matheson before the March 7 NHL deadline.
Fellow veteran defenceman David Savard will almost certainly get traded and, as noted above, it’s hard to win in the NHL with a lot of young defencemen. The Canadiens learned that this season, which is why Hughes acquired Alexandre Carrier from the Nashville Predators in exchange for Justin Barron.
Matheson, 30, still has one more season left on his contract with a reasonable salary-cap hit of US$4.875 million, so there should be no rush to trade him. Also, if the Canadiens want to have any hope of being “in the mix” for a playoff spot next season they’ll need a veteran defenceman like Matheson, who leads the team in ice time this season with an average of 24:37 per game.
Next year at this time, when the Canadiens have a better idea of how young defencemen like Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher are progressing, would be a better time to decide if they should trade Matheson.
Is there any truth to the Josh Anderson inquiries from other teams?
Darren – Habs and Avs @DK4lighting
I’m sure there is interest in Anderson from other teams.
The 6-foot-3, 226-pound winger was built for the playoffs and we saw that during the Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup final in 2021 before losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Anderson had 5-1-6 totals in 22 games during that playoff run and ranked second on the Canadiens in hits with 87 — one behind defenceman Ben Chiarot.
Anderson has played well this season, with 9-10-19 totals after scoring Saturday night in Ottawa. He has been battling through an injury that forced him to miss several practices recently, taking therapy days instead. Anderson still ranks third on the Canadiens in hits with 124, trailing Arber Xhekaj (143) and Juraj Slafkovsky (129).
A healthy Anderson is not fun to play against — especially in a best-of-seven playoff series.
The 30-year-old has two more seasons remaining on his contract with a US$5.5 million salary-cap hit. I’m sure Hughes will be taking calls from other GMs about him, but I’m also pretty sure he won’t give Anderson away.
Are you worried about Juraj Slafkovsky and do you think Adam Fantilli in Columbus is available?
kimo on X — @hakoum
There has been good reason to be worried about Slafkovsky this season, although he did play a great game in Ottawa on Saturday with a goal, five shots, eight hits and even a fight.
Slafkovsky said recently you have to play like Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk to have success in the NHL and he played like the Senators captain on Saturday.
While he’s only 20, this is Slafkovsky’s third NHL season and until Saturday he had taken a big step backward after being the No. 1 overall pick at the 2022 NHL Draft. After posting 16-19-35 totals over the last 41 games last season, Slafkovsky has 9-22-31 totals in 54 games this season. He ranks eighth on the Canadiens with 76 shots — which is 97 fewer than Cole Caufield, who leads the team with 173. Brendan Gallagher has 107 shots (and 15 goals) while averaging 13:41 of ice time. Slafkovsky is averaging 16:50.
There are 229 players in the NHL with more goals than Slafkovsky this season and two of them were selected after him at the 2022 NHL Draft.Logan Cooley, picked third overall by the Arizona Coyotes (now the Utah Hockey Club), has 15 goals. Shane Wright, selected fourth overall by the Seattle Kraken, has 12 goals.
As for Fantilli, selected third overall by the Blue Jackets at the 2023 NHL Draft, he has really picked up his game since an injury to teammate and former Canadien Sean Monahan.
The wrist injury that has sidelined Monahan since Jan. 7 bumped Fantilli up to the No. 1 centre spot with the Blue Jackets. In the 16 games since Monahan was sidelined, the 6-foot-2, 199-pound Fantilli has 7-7-14 totals, giving the 20-year-old 16-17-33 totals in 57 games this season. Monahan is expected to be sidelined for another 2-4 weeks after posting 14-27-41 totals in 41 games.
So no, I don’t think Fantilli is available.
What have you reflected upon during the 4 Nations break vis-a-vis the Habs and their season to this point?
After i on X — @JMcinthe613
Watching the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament highlighted just how good the star players on other NHL teams are and the drop-off when it comes to the Canadiens.
Captain Nick Suzuki, who leads the Canadiens with 15-39-54 totals, ranks 33rd in the NHL in scoring.
There were only three Canadiens players involved in the 4 Nations Face-Off and they had limited roles. Goalie Samuel Montembeault didn’t even dress for a game with Team Canada, while Laine ended up on the third line with Team Finland and teammate Joel Armia was on the fourth line. Armia was also a healthy scratch for one of Finland’s games.
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