Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison meaning a recall petition will be triggered.
If 10 per cent of Amesbury’s constituents sign the petition, a by-election will be forced, and it is Reform UK who look best placed to capitalise on the opportunity.
Amesbury, who won the traditionally safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby by 14,696 votes in July 2024, was filmed repeatedly punching a constituent in drunken brawl.
Labour condemned his actions and suspended the whip immediately, meaning Amesbury has been sitting as an independent MP since the fracas.
PICTURED: Mike Amesbury arrives at Chester Magistrates’ CourtPAAfter pleading guilty several weeks ago, Amesburywas sentenced today in Chester Magistrates’ Court by Deputy Chief Magistrate Tan Ikram.
The magistrate said the MP’s drunken assault was too serious for a community order and immediate custody was necessary.
Amesbury applied for bail so he could lodge an appeal but was turned down. He was taken from the court to a prison van which took him into custody.
Should ten per cent of Amesbury’s constituents sign the recall petition, a by-election will be held, traditionally a major headache for the incumbent party.
It presents a huge opportunity for Reform UK to send a major warning shot to Labour whose support has been collapsing across the country, according to latest polls.
The ‘disruptor’ party is the best placed of the rest to challenge for the seat, according to multiple sophisticated poll aggregating models.
The Nowcast model puts Reform at 30 per cent in the seat (up 11.4 per cent), still 11.5 percentage points behind Labour.
Nowcast model projection for Runcorn and Helsby
ElectionMapsUK
Electoral Calculus also give Reform the best chance of an upset amongst opposition parties.
Their latest ‘mega-poll’ gave Labour 36.6 per cent of the vote share, ahead of second placed Reform with 29.8 per cent (which translates to a 7,000 majority).
In terms of how likely parties are to win the seat, Labour was given a 62 per cent chance of winning, Reform 36 per cent and the Conservatives two per cent.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
- ‘Dangerous time for people!’ Colonel forced to quit for social post sounds alarm on our armed forces
- Police knocking at a grandmother’s house shows JD Vance was right on free speech – Kelvin MacKenzie
- ‘An evil in society – war is not won’, warns bank worker who won unfair dismissal case over ‘N-word’
Electoral Calculus projection for Runcorn and Helsby
Electoral Calculus
Both these models are based on UK-wide polling that asks the question ‘who would you vote for if a General Election was called tomorrow?’, however.
This means Reform’s chances are better than the models suggest because it is likely anti-Labour sentiment will be focused in Runcorn and Helsby.
There is also a long history of by-elections going against the incumbent party as they present a rare opportunity to punish the government.
During the 2019-2024 UK Parliament, 24 by-elections were held. Labour gained 10 seats, mainly from the Conservatives and SNP, while the Liberal Democrats gained 4. The Conservatives gained 1 seat (Hartlepool) but lost 5.
There were 6 Labour holds, 2 Conservative holds, and 1 SNP hold. Notable results included Labour winning traditionally safe Conservative seats like Tamworth, Wellingborough, and Selby & Ainsty, and George Galloway’s Workers Party gaining Rochdale.
The Liberal Democrats overturned large Tory majorities in North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton, Chesham & Amersham, and Somerton & Frome.
While there is nothing stopping Amesbury standing as an independent, it is highly unlikely he will ever return to politics.
In graphic footage, the aspirational parliamentarian, 55, repeatedly hit a constituency called Paul Fellowes, stating: “You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?”
Reacting, Reform UK Chairman, Zia Yusuf said: “Today Mike Amesbury has been sentenced to 10 weeks in prison.
“The great people of Runcorn deserve far better than waiting six weeks for a recall petition to take place.
“We call on Mike Amesbury to do the honourable thing and resign immediately so a by election can be held.”
People are disqualified from standing as an MP if they receive a prison sentence of more than one year.
The Labour Party confirmed they will be defending the seat with a new candidate.
It stated: “The Labour Party took swift action following Mike Amesbury’s completely unacceptable actions and he is no longer a Labour MP or a member of the Labour Party.
“It is right that Mr Amesbury pleaded guilty and has now been sentenced.
“Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”