OTTAWA — Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney may have the backing of the party establishment and donors with deep pockets, but the average donation to his campaign happens to be the lowest, almost neck and neck with contender Karina Gould.
The Liberal leadership fundraising numbers posted on Elections Canada this week, although already outdated, provided a snapshot of where candidates stand in the short race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, expected to conclude on March 9.
The filing period was from Jan. 10 to Feb. 9. During that time, Carney managed to raise more than $1.9 million from 11,260 donors for an average of $169.89.
That is only two dollars lower than Gould, who reported a fundraising total of $236,075.10 from 1,375 donors during that period, averaging $171.69 per donation.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and the Trudeau Liberals’ pollster in the last three elections, said the numbers not only confirm that Carney is the “clear front-runner,” but raise questions about the actual level of support for former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.
“It maybe casts a bit of doubt in terms of if Freeland is actually the co-front-runner, or if she is fighting with Gould for second place,” he said. “I think there could be some evidence that Karina is closer to the front of the pack than maybe it was previously thought.”
Freeland’s donations totalled $226,661.10 from 332 donors, but a campaign spokeswoman said those numbers paint an incomplete picture, as they only reflect the contributions Freeland directly collected prior to the official race starting on Jan. 28.
Chantalle Aubertin said campaigns were given the option to either receive donations collected by the party for them directly in their accounts on a regular basis, or to let the party hold on to their donations. She said only Freeland’s team chose the latter.
“The benefit was us saving on wire, credit card, and transaction fees,” said Aubertin.
Freeland’s campaign said it has raised nearly $600,000 from more than 2,000 donors as of Tuesday, and that Freeland is one of two campaigns who has not borrowed any money.
Carney’s team said it took a loan of $150,000 right after the launch of the campaign to get the cash flow it needed to start travelling, but that amount has already been repaid in full.
The National Post took a closer look at the people who contributed to each campaign.
Carney’s contributions show maximum donations of $1,750 from Gerald Butts, who served as principal secretary to Trudeau, but also former Liberal ministers such as Bill Morneau, Scott Brison and David Lametti, who has been friends with Carney for 30 years.
Carney has also received financial support from the powerful Bronfman and Desmarais families in Quebec, but also Annette Verschuren, who served as chairperson of Sustainable Development Technologies Canada also known as the “green slush fund.”
However, Arnold said Carney’s fundraising efforts shows he has also been effective at doing “grassroots fundraising.” More than two thirds of the donations to his campaign are less than $100.
“He’s not just calling up a bunch of his rich banker friends and shaking them down for money. He actually is getting a groundswell of support across the country,” said Arnold.
Freeland, for her part, received donations between $1,000 and $1,750 from New Brunswick’s powerful Irving family.
From Vienna, former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff also weighed in on the leadership race, donating $500 each to Carney and Freeland.
As for Gould, she raised money from current and former Liberals, including MPs who have thrown their support behind some of her competitors. Mark Gerretsen, who supports Carney, and Rob Oliphant, who supports Freeland, have donated to her campaign.
On Tuesday, Gould said that she has had over 3,000 Canadians contribute to her campaign, making it 50 per cent more than Freeland’s 2,000 donors to date.
“Karina Gould’s numbers are quite impressive,” said Arnold. “Even if you take the Freeland corrected numbers out there, it looks like Freeland has probably raised a little bit more money than Gould, but Gould has got significantly more donors than Freeland.”
The lesser-known candidates in the leadership race have also managed to show some muscle, despite having benefited from less media coverage than the others.
As of Feb. 9, Frank Baylis managed to fundraise a total of $227,441.90 from 188 donors, for an average of $1,209.90 per donor, and took out a loan of $50,000.
Ruby Dhalla has the highest average per donor at $1,354.03 in that same time frame, collecting $144,880.90 in fundraising from 107 donors. She also took a loan of $25,000.
These fundraising numbers are already obsolete, since all five candidates met this week’s final payment deadline of $125,000 to the party for a total of $350,000 in order to stay in the race. The next fundraising numbers should be unveiled after the next leader is chosen.
Even though fundraising is a good indicator of support, Arnold said that candidates cannot take anything for granted at this stage. The French and English leadership debates next week could be a moment for any one of them “to really catch the attention of voters.”
“I think people really like the idea of Mark Carney right now,” he said. “If he gets up on a debate stage and … does not perform well, that could give some Liberals who are maybe excited about Carney, from an electability perspective, second thoughts.”
National Post
[email protected]
Get more deep-dive National Post political coverage and analysis in your inbox with the Political Hack newsletter, where Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson and political analyst Tasha Kheiriddin get at what’s really going on behind the scenes on Parliament Hill every Wednesday and Friday, exclusively for subscribers. Sign up here.
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.