Reform UK is on the brink of securing another huge electoral upset, this time in Priti Patel’s backyard.
Voters in Tiptree, Essex, a Tory heartland are set to go to the polls tomorrow in a hotly anticipated council by-election that will indicate whether Reform’s strong polling translates into results.
While polling is unavailable for individual council wards, we can look at polling for the wider constituency in which Tiptree is located, in this case Priti Patel’s seat of Witham.
The rural Essex seat has voted Conservative since its creation in 2010, returning former Home Secretary Patel with huge majorities, most notably 24,000 in 2019.
But latest polling reveals Reform are neck and neck with the Tories. The Nowcast model, which aggregates UK-wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Witham remaining Tory, but only just.
Badenoch’s party would gain 34.3 per cent of the vote if an election was held tomorrow, the model shows, just 3.6 per cent ahead of Reform.
Witham projection
ElectionMapsUK
But other models show the seat flipping to Reform. Extrapolating FindOutNow’s most recent national poll (which gave Reform a four-point lead), shows Farage snatching the seat as a slew of other Essex and Kent seats fall to Reform.
The last election in Tiptree saw the Conservatives win with 45 per cent of the vote. Labour got 24 while Reform got 19.
New candidate Patricia Teresa Harrison is standing for Reform, while the Conservatives’ Will Calverley also hasn’t stood before.
Labour candidate John Spademan has stood seven times before in various elections around the Colchester area, losing all seven.
Elsewhere in Britain, there are by elections due in the wards of Whalebone (Barking and Dagenham, London), Kilmarnock North (east Ayrshire, Scotland), Hammersmith Broadway and Lillie (both London).
Unfortunately for Reform, they have no candidate standing in Whalebone despite this being the best opportunity by far for a win.
The wider constituency of Dagenham and Rainham is being projected to flip to Reform by the Nowcast model in a huge swing from Labour.
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Dagenham and Rainham projection
ElectionMapsUK
Elections in Kilmarnock and Hammersmith look nailed on to remain with their incumbent parties (SNP and Labour respectively).
It comes as Reform UK top successive polls in the UK for the first time. A quick scan of UK wide pollsters reveals their most recent findings are:
MoreInCommon: Reform one point lead
YouGov: Reform two point lead
Techne: Labour one point lead
FindOutNow: Reform six point lead
Opinium: Labour one point lead
However, Farage’s party appears to be failing to translate these poll results into electoral gains.
The ‘disruptor’ party has won 11 by-elections since the July General Election (net gain of eleven) compared with Labour’s 69 (net loss of 32) and the Tories’ 52 (net gain of 24).
The Lib Dems have won 36 seats (net loss of one) and the Greens nine (net loss of two).
A Reform spokesperson said: “The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives.
“Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
“Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 200,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them.”
Local elections across England are due in May 2026, though nine authorities have postponed them as Labour look to reorganise local government.