Trump times are proving to be tumultuous. The whirlwind of executive actions affecting U.S. government operations is attracting numerous judicial and political challenges, as are the efforts of Elon Musk and his DOGE team to cut waste and abuse in government spending, cuts the Trump team needs to pay for many campaign promises.
Trump’s tariff actions are beyond bizarre. Ostensibly intended to reduce America’s trade deficits, the actions are indiscriminate, have no basis in trade law, and are generating uncertainty and confusion in global markets. Moreover, they are more likely to increase prices for producers and consumers and rekindle inflation — the opposite of what Trump promised.
Trump’s claim that America is subsidizing Canada on trade does not stand scrutiny. We are selling our oil — 60 per cent of U.S. imports — to the U.S. at a discount to world prices, so who exactly is subsidizing whom in this equation? Obsessed with trade deficits, Trump is blatantly violating the trade agreement he, himself, signed in 2020, and is now threatening tariffs of 25 per cent across the board, while countries with much larger trade deficits with the U.S., namely China, Japan and Vietnam are spared. Where is the logic in this?
More tariffs aimed at Canada are coming and will be cumulative. Trump will use his executive authority to impose in April reciprocal tariffs on countries he thinks treat the U.S. unfairly, attacking non-tariff barriers, including value-added taxes on American companies and government subsidies or regulations that restrict business by U.S. companies in foreign countries. The White House has already targeted Canada’s digital services tax as an unfair trade practice. The administration plans to invoke Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act to justify its actions — what we used to call the U.S. “nuclear bomb on trade.”
No matter what legal guise the administration selects, trade experts know that these actions would break sharply from global trading rules and norms established under the WTO. In response, Trump and his allies claim that China and other nations game the WTO rules to cheat the U.S.
A team of Canadian premiers abased themselves pleading their case on tariffs with mid-level White House officials. After the meeting, one of the White House officials said he “never agreed Canada won’t be the 51st state in the meeting” while another White House official urged the premiers “to take the president at his word.” Some consolation!
Trump has expressed ‘manifest destiny’ aspirations with Greenland, Panama and Canada which may stir the hearts of many MAGA followers but are insulting and offensive to the countries concerned.
Most alarming, Trump shows every sign of repeating the ‘cut and run’ strategy that embarrassed the U.S. in its ignominious withdrawals from Afghanistan and Vietnam with a u-turn on Ukraine that presages a world of great power spheres of influence. Trump reached out unilaterally to Vladimir Putin — a recognized war criminal — to negotiate a peace agreement over the head of Ukrainian president Zelensky and without prior consultation with any NATO allies. As former National Security Advisor John Bolton lamented, Trump “has effectively surrendered to Putin before negotiations have even begun …. completely reversing U.S. positions and getting nothing in return.” Bolton added “Putin does not want to negotiate with Zelensky. He wants to negotiate with Trump because he thinks he will get more from him and he’s absolutely right.”
In Europe, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cavalierly advised NATO allies that Russia should be able to keep some Ukrainian territory it has seized, and that Ukraine should not be part of NATO — both are Putin positions. Hegseth’s remarks were abruptly dismissed by Roger Wicker, Republican Chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, as a “rookie mistake.” Hegseth then retreated saying “everything is on the table.” He observed later to NBC News that “Europe is responsible for stopping Russian aggression.” If that is the case, why exclude them from peace negotiations?
Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance lectured Europeans in Munich on censorship and failing to maintain security.
No mention was made about future security guarantees for Ukraine nor about who will pay for the damages to Ukraine caused by three years of Russian attacks. Instead, Trump is glibly seeking US$500B in rare earth minerals from Ukraine as compensation for U.S military support.
Trump now insists that the future security of Ukraine and Europe as well should be left to the Europeans. So why is he negotiating with Putin? Is America’s withdrawal from NATO also part of this strategy? The mind boggles at the ineptitude and insouciance of the president’s statements.
His phone call to Putin was greeted enthusiastically in Moscow but shocked European leaders and Zelensky. What happened to the noble notion that Ukrainians have the inherent right to determine their own fate which precludes becoming a docile pawn in a debate between two “great” powers.
Ultimate victory for Putin will be ensuring that Ukraine doesn’t fall into the western camp and, at the same time, is denied the ability to make sovereign choices about its security arrangements. Unilateral concessions by the U.S would bring abject capitulation by Ukraine. Trump may celebrate bringing an end to the war, as he had promised, and some Americans may be gullible enough to believe that, but the parallel with Chamberlain’s flimsy “Peace in our Time” agreement with Hitler just before World War II is striking. U.S. and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia this week to prepare for an early Trump-Putin summit.
As a Wall Street Journal editorial observed, “Mr. Trump has to decide if he wants an honorable peace in Ukraine or risk his own Afghanistan and Vietnam.” To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, it is not a time “to go wobbly.”
In Munich, Zelensky warned that the days of guaranteed support from the U.S. are over but, without concrete U.S security guarantees, he faces a grim future. He plaintively urged Europe to band together to create a united army and foreign policy. An emergency European summit is being convened in Paris today.
Regrettably, America’s word on trade and security is no longer its bond.
National Post
Derek H. Burney is a former, 30 year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989-1993.