NASA has once again raised the risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth, with experts declaring a 1-in-32 chance of collision, the highest yet. Last week the risk had doubled from its original prediction to 2.3%, just a week later NASA have said the risk of the asteroid hitting Earth is 3.1%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered last December an automated telescope in Chile and has since risen to the top of impact risk lists maintained by US and European space agencies. As time continues to pass, astronomers are able to predict the likelihood of the asteroid colliding with Earth more accurately, which is likely why we are seeing the risk increase overtime.
Whilst the odds are growing, it does not mean they will necessarily continue to grow, and the risk could even decrease over time. The asteroid has a chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, meaning agencies and experts have years to assess the risk and potentially alter the asteroid’s path. However in the next few months the asteroid is going to fade out of view, meaning scientists have a limited time to continue assessing the risk until it comes back into view in 2028.
What would happen if Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth?
The asteroid is around 100 metres wide, meaning it has the capability to cause catastrophic damage on a city scale. NASA estimates the rock weighs just shy of a quarter of a million tonnes, and if it were to hit Earth, the asteroid would explode with the force of more than 2.2 million tonnes of TNT.
Currently, the predicted areas the asteroid could hit stretches from the Pacific Ocean, over South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East and into Asia. This trajectory takes the asteroid over some of the most populated cities in the world: Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata and Dhaka.
If the asteroid were to strike these cities, over 100 million people would be impacted, causing a large loss of life and the destruction of buildings and land. In an interview with LBC, retired astronaut and former commander of the International Space Station, Chris Hadfield said if the asteroid hit Earth it would be like a “grenade”.
“Think of the destruction we wrought on each other during Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” he said. “This is 500 times more powerful, just because of the energy of it coming through the atmosphere, causing shockwaves, and because of the heating, exploding.
“It’s like a grenade. A grenade is no bigger than your fist, but it can do damage over a wide area. This is a grenade that’s 60 metres across.” The asteroid is like a “bullet zeroing in on Earth from deep space, travelling at around 17 kilometres per second,” he added.
In the rare instance the asteroid was certain to head for Earth and strike land, planetary defence agencies would need to come up with emergency response plans that could involve evacuation. However, if Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to explode over the ocean there would likely be no effect.