On Sunday, Reform UK issued this bombshell statement: “There are no circumstances in which Reform would ever do a pact with Boris Johnson or the Conservative Party.”
That’s a bold move – one that shows Nigel Farage’s party is backing itself to win the next General Election. They say go big or go home, and Reform has certainly gone big.
And why not? With over 200,000 members, strong polling numbers, and having one of the most consequential figures in modern British politics leading the party, they have every reason to believe they can win outright.
At this stage – four years out from the next General Election – staking a claim to victory makes complete sense. But the wording of Reform’s statement was pointed and absolute, leaving no room for manoeuvre if needed. Will Reform’s position hold when the electoral or polling math comes into play? We won’t fully know the answer until around four years from now.
Here’s the danger: as we saw last year, if the right-wing vote is split anything like it was then, Labour will cruise to a second term, leaving the country in a perilous position both domestically and internationally.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer must be rubbing his hands with glee. A divided right all but guarantees he remains in power, no matter how badly he and his party perform. And that’s bad news for pensioners, farmers, small businesses, and schools.
Reform may be playing to win, but if they’re not careful, they might just be handing Starmer’s Labour Party the keys to Downing Street once again, something that could have dire consequences for broken Britain.
If there were an election tomorrow, Reform UK could win somewhere between 75 and 90 seats, certainly not overall majority territory. But with membership increasing at a rapid rate and rising poll numbers, the party could go from five MPs to an outright majority four years from now. Difficult? Absolutely. Impossible? Definitely not!
If the right-wing vote is split, Labour will cruise to a second term, writes Keith Bays
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But let’s be real. The more likely scenario is that a deal will need to be done with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives for Reform to win power, most likely as part of a coalition government. Digging in now could come back to haunt the party if the arithmetic doesn’t quite add up, either in the polls before the next election or after the election has taken place.
The number one priority for Reform UK should be to become the dominant force on the Right of British politics. If they achieve that, any future deal will see them as the senior partner controlling top cabinet positions and, crucially, putting Nigel Farage in number 10.
To achieve that dominance, all efforts should be aimed at challenging the Labour Party. Since coming to power, the Prime Minister has enacted policies that his critics would argue are damaging for the country – winter fuel payments for pensioners and inheritance tax on family farms appear to have irked the public, impacting Starmer’s own personal approval ratings.
By Reform demonstrating that they are effective in taking on Labour in opposition, they’ll boost their chances of being looked at as a serious option by middle Britain, the key part of the electorate who may already be experiencing buyer’s remorse after voting Labour, and who could be looking for an alternative at the next election.
Farage is a political heavyweight, one of the most consequential party leaders Britain has seen in decades, but he may need to keep all options on the table, including working with Badenoch if it serves the national interest.
Political rivals form alliances all over the world, I’m sure if it means removing Starmer from Number 10, Farage and Badenoch would do it.
My message: keep all options on the table – it’s in the national interest.