Meanwhile, North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russians are said to have returned to the front lines.
Ukraine has advanced 5km (3 miles) deeper into Russian territory during the past week, as Russia again reportedly deployed North Korean forces against it.
But as Kyiv’s forces inched ahead, United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a NATO meeting on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” to expect a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and ruled out NATO membership for the war-torn nation – a major blow to Ukraine’s post-war ambitions.
Amid tensions between NATO allies, with several European members at odds with Washington’s perspective, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) released a report on Tuesday warning that Russia could launch a war with “one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided”.
“Since 2022, Russia has been undertaking a major reconstruction and reform of its military forces in parallel with its war effort in Ukraine,” the report said.
“During 2024, this effort has changed its nature from a reconstruction to an intensified military buildup with the goal of being able to wage an equal fight against NATO forces.
“The economic and material support from China and the support from North Korea and Iran with troops and weapons systems, respectively, are increasingly contributing to freeing up resources for Russia’s rearmament against NATO.”
Ukraine’s intensified push
On February 6, Ukrainian forces launched a new offensive with two mechanised battalions from the town of Makhnovka, which they control.
Geolocated footage showed they had moved along the 38K-028 highway to form a salient towards the southeast, capturing the settlements of Kolmakov and Fanaseyevka.
Ukrainian forces advanced somewhat further along that highway on Friday, holding positions close to Cherkasskaya Konopelka, said Russian reporters.
They said a second Ukrainian offensive launched from Dimitriukov was successfully checked.
Ukraine had launched another surprise offensive in Kursk on January 5.
Two surprise offensives in as many months suggest the importance Ukraine places on the Kursk operation, as well as Russia’s inability to anticipate Ukrainian actions, according to observers.
Moscow’s forces have been unable to dislodge Ukraine from Russian territory since August 6 last year, when Ukraine counter-invaded in a surprise move not even its allies knew about, as an active defence against Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
On the six-month anniversary of the operation, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) revealed that preparations had begun two months before the counter-invasion.
“When Russia in June 2024 continued to carry out loud air strikes on the Sumy region, small special forces groups entered the enemy rear in the Kursk region,” the SSO posted on its Telegram channel.
“The destruction of Russian air defence systems and ammunition depots did not leave the enemy the opportunity to react quickly. Point strikes on strategic objects and enemy logistics made it impossible to quickly transfer reinforcements,” it said.
The SSO also said its special operations forces liaised with local resistance fighters opposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to set up ambushes and carry out sabotage.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine’s push into Kursk has diverted 60,000 of Russia’s most capable personnel from the Ukrainian front to defend Russian turf.
Manpower shortages
Last December, Russia deployed North Korean soldiers to help secure its territory, but those forces were said to have disappeared from the battlefield in mid-January after losing as much as a third of their number in dead and wounded, according to estimates.
Zelenskyy said on Friday that they were returning after recuperation, and a Ukrainian unit published video purporting to show them in active combat on Saturday.
Both sides have faced manpower shortages.
Last May, Ukraine passed a conscription law obliging Ukrainian men aged 25-27 to enlist. The move was thought enough to raise a quarter of a million new soldiers, but Kyiv has struggled as some avoid the draft.
Ukraine has had to spend 50,000 of those new recruits bringing existing brigades back up to strength rather than building a dozen new brigades as planned. Zelenskyy said he would now offer inducements for 18-24 year-olds to sign up to fight as well.
Russia’s situation is also difficult.
Unlike Zelenskyy, Putin has not enlisted through general mobilisation, possibly fearing the political consequences.
Zelenskyy said on February 4 that Russia has lost 300,000 to 350,000 soldiers since the full-scale invasion, with another 600,000 to 700,000 wounded. The figures are the highest yet given by Ukraine, whose Ministry of Defence estimates more than 850,000 Russian dead and wounded.
Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said last month that 434,000 of those casualties were incurred in 2024 alone, suggesting that the war is becoming deadlier and less sustainable for Russia.
Russian-North Korean military cooperation deepens
North Korea has apparently been helping Russia with migrant labour as well as soldiery.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) revealed on Sunday that 13,221 North Koreans entered the Russian Federation last year, 12 times the number that emigrated in 2023.
Those workers were separate from the 11,000 troops North Korea reportedly dispatched to Russia beginning in August.
About half of the workers entered on student visas, the NIS said.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, suggested this was a way of bypassing a UN Security Council Resolution barring any country from receiving North Korean labourers.
North Korea is sanctioned for its nuclear weapons programme, and the UN is concerned that a diaspora could reinforce the economy with remittances.
Putin has reportedly grown increasingly reliant on his North Korean ally for ammunition as well.
Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukraine Center for Countering Disinformation, said last December that 60 percent of the artillery ordnance used by Russia now comes from North Korean factories.
Japanese news network NHK quoted unnamed sources on Saturday saying Russia would co-develop drones with North Korea in order to increase the size of its arsenal.
“The sources say the accord on drone development is in return for North Korea’s deployment of soldiers,” said NHK.
Russia may also be assisting North Korea improve the accuracy of its ballistic missiles, which they are already using in Ukraine.
Two Ukrainian military sources told Reuters that all 20 North Korean ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine since late December have shown remarkably greater accuracy than those used earlier.
“The increase in accuracy – to within 50-100m of the intended target – suggests North Korea is successfully using the battlefield to test its missile technology,” Reuters quoted the sources as saying.
The ISW pointed out that hitherto, North Korean missiles had an accuracy range of 1 to 3 km (0.6 to 1.9 miles).
During a visit to Russia in September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toured Vostochny Spaceport with Putin, visited production sites for military aircraft at Komsomolsk, and viewed Russian planes and missile systems.
“This is why we are visiting here,” state news agency Tass quoted Putin as saying at Vostochny. “The North Korean leader has expressed a strong interest in rocket technology, and they are also seeking to develop space exploration capabilities.”
Russia has threatened to provide its other weapons ally, Iran, with ballistic missile technology, and it could provide the same technology to North Korea.
Ukraine’s deep strikes
Ukraine continued its campaign of disrupting Russian weapons and energy supply to the front.
It said its long-range drones struck the Albashneft oil depot at Novominskaya, in the Russian region of Krasnodar Krai, on February 5, causing a fire.
The following day, Ukrainian drones struck the Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Ukraine’s General Staff said, causing an explosion and fire.
On Tuesday, the staff said their drones struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov City, which supplies the Russian military.
Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation said Ukrainian drones also struck the Engels Airbase and the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai during the week.
Ukraine has set a high priority on developing its own drones to strike deep in Russia unburdened by restrictions on the uses of Western weapons.
Ivan Havrylyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, said on Friday that Ukraine had patented 1,300 types of drone and drone ammunition since the beginning of the war, with 250 drone models approved last year alone.
Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said he would increase the size of existing drone battalions and regiments, and would unify their command to enable them to undertake coordinated action. That would enable Ukraine to create kill zones 10 to 15 km (6 to 9 miles) deep inside enemy territory, he said, destroying Russian forces before they reach the front lines.
Trump’s payment in rare earths
Zelenskyy told The Guardian on Tuesday that Europe could not supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs without US support.
Trump on February 3 said he wanted Ukrainian rare earth metals in return for US aid. Zelenskyy told The Guardian all allies could share in Ukraine’s mineral wealth, valued at 26 trillion euros ($28 trillion), but the US would have priority access.
Trump spoke with Putin on the phone for the first time on Wednesday, and phoned Zelenskyy to inform him of the discussion.
“I am grateful to the President for his genuine interest in our shared opportunities,” Zelenskyy later said in his evening address. “We discussed many aspects – diplomatic, military, economic.”
Zelenskyy said he would present the US delegation to the Munich Security Conference on Friday with “an agreement that will strengthen our security and give new momentum to our economic relations”.
