This in, some bad news when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers prospect pool by way of Scott Wheeler, prospect writer for The Athletic.
Wheeler just came out with his list of the Top 100 NHL prospects. His definition of a prospect? ”A skater must be under 23 years old and not fully established with their NHL club.”
That sounds reasonable enough.
When it comes to Oilers prospects as ranked by the Cult of Hockey last summer, that definition would include top prospects such Matthew Savoie (Buffalo’s first pick, ninth overall, in 2022 and acquired in the Ryan McLeod trade this summer), 2024 first round pick Sam Reilly, 2023 second round pick Beau Akey, and other top prospects such as Maximus Wanner, Matvey Petrov and Jayden Grubbe now in Bakersfield and Shane LaChance at Boston University.
But just one of them, Savoie — who is scoring at a good clip in the AHL and impressing observers with his defensive play — made Wheeler’s list.
And Savoie’s stock has fallen mightily, from drafted ninth to 46th on Wheeler’s list, more than any other pick in the Top 15 pick that year save for Connor Geekie.
When it comes to other to Top15 picks in the 2022 NHL entry draft, Simon Nemec has dropped from second overall in the draft to 12th on Wheeler’s list, David Jiricek from 6th to 20th, Kevin Korchinski from seventh to 28th, Marco Kasper from 8th to 31st, Connor Geekie, 11th to 53rd, Frank Nazar, 13th to 27th, Rutger McGroarty, 14th to 44th, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki, 15th to 32nd.
My take
- Wheeler is a credible source. He’s one of a small handful of journalists on earth who are paid to write full-time about NHL prospects. That means that unlike everyone else in the Oil Country– bloggers, sports columnists, pundits, fans, podcasters – he’s seen all the prospects play and he can compare one to the other in a way we cannot do.
- I’ve followed Wheeler’s work for years. He’s not always right – no one trying to predict the future actions of young men is – but he’s fair, knowledgeable and has no axe to grind with the Oilers. As I say, he’s a credible source.
- Just because he’s credible, of course, that doesn’t mean he’s right. Experts who watch all these prospects will value and rank them differently. There will be strong disagreements. It could be that O’Reilly or LaChance, who failed to make Wheeler’s list, will have strong NHL careers, better than all but a handful of players who did make Wheeler’s list.
- But Wheeler’s list is a one valid gauge of Edmonton’s performance when it comes to drafting and developing. Right now Edmonton is at a low point, which isn’t unexpected given that the team has traded away numerous top picks and prospects in order to compete for the Stanley Cup with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their prime playing years.
- It’s also the case that former GMs Ken Holland and Jeff Jackson made a fundamental blunder last year in letting two top young players, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, get away on offer sheets. Holland should have been far more pro-active in signing the two players last winter. Holland having failed that, Jackson should have been more careful early in free agency to make sure to sign up Holloway and Broberg before all his cap space was used up. The loss of the two players represents a massive fail on the part of Oilers management.
- It’s still too early to tell how draft picks in the Holland era will turn out. Holloway certainly is wowing folks in St. Louis. Edmonton has gotten little value on the big club from Holland’s drafts but perhaps players like Akey, Wanner, Maxim Berezkin and LaChance will still change that equation. There’s also great hope, of course, that Savoie and O’Reilly will make it big in Edmonton, with Savoie still projected to compete for a Top 6 job and O’Reilly still projected in the Core-12 as a third-line centre. We shall see.
- Savoie, who just now turned 21, is one of the top rookie scorers in the AHL. He was just measured as the fastest skater at the AHL all-star game. And Wheeler does indeed have him in his Top 50, a list that includes players not just from the 2022 draft but from as many as five drafts. Hope!
At the Cult of Hockey
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