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So now it’s crunch time.
This has been one of the strangest Premier League seasons we’ve ever seen. Manchester City’s collapse, the stunning top-four run for Nottingham Forest, Liverpool leaping to the top after their iconic manager leaves and they didn’t buy anyone in the summer, but then getting knocked out of the FA Cup by Plymouth, the worst team in the Championship.
Surprises abound, which make things fascinating.
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This is the moment when the title race truly will crystalize. On the heels of Liverpool dropping two points on a controversial 97th-minute equalizer in their game against Everton, they have some ponderous fixtures coming up.
With level games played, Liverpool now has a seven-point advantage over Arsenal. Assuming Arsenal thinks it can win at Anfield in the third-to-last game of the season, the Gunners still need Liverpool to slip up twice, and they would need to be perfect.
For Liverpool, there’s Wolves this weekend — which should be straightforward — but then they play next Wednesday at Aston Villa, far from easy. The Reds then play at Manchester City.
Say what you will about City’s bizarre struggles, but they’ve still got the quality to get a win against anyone and certainly their players and fans will be up for the match.
The Villa match Wednesday is a curious one, it has been brought forward from March 16 as Liverpool plays Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final that weekend, so after this week’s make-up game against Everton and next week’s match at Villa, Liverpool goes from having a game in hand on Arsenal to having one instead.
It’s one of the tougher games Liverpool has left on their schedule, Villa has lost just once at home all season, though they do have five home draws. If Liverpool can escape February with more than a six-point lead, the odds on them actually getting over the line to win the title should go up immeasurably.
In the next month, we should know if we’re going to have a nail-biting race to the post or if Arsenal will be hoping for an epic collapse.
Here’s Liverpool’s next five league games:
Wolves (h), Aston Villa (a), Manchester City (a), Newcastle (h), Southampton (h).
Arsenal’s next five:
Leicester (a), West Ham (h), Nottingham Forest (a), Manchester United (a), Chelsea (h).
And they’ll have to play those games without striker Kai Havertz, who tore his hamstring on a training trip in Dubai and is reported to be out for the rest of the season.
While Liverpool is steaming at the moment after seeing Everton’s equalizer be scored in the 97th minute when only five minutes of extra time were added and a seemingly obvious foul on a defender overlooked in the late goal, it continues to be a puzzle what they’re doing with their own players.
There’s still been no clarity or movement on contract extensions for Mo Salah, captain Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, who can leave for any other club for free at season’s end.
Salah and van Dijk both have publicly stated they want to stay at Liverpool while Alexander-Arnold is thought to have been sold on the idea of playing for Real Madrid, which has been forward with intentions to sign him.
Salah was spectacular again against Everton with an assist and a brilliant goal, and van Dijk a brick wall again at the back. Though they’re both over 30 and contracts for older players is against the owners’ policy, they’re playing the best soccer of their careers and Liverpool wouldn’t be competing without them.
Why this is taking so long is mystifying to every Liverpool fan, and could honestly threaten to undo their season if it impacts the team’s psyche. If they’re serious about winning the league and the Champions League, they need to sort it out now.
Champions fighting to stay in Champions League
There’s an interesting match up this week in the Fubo Game of the Week. At some point, we’ve all been waiting for Manchester City’s championship DNA to kick it.
Yes, the league is gone, but their defensive issues persist, along with a bizarre fragility.
It happened again this week. In their two-legged playoff with Real Madrid to move on in the Champions League, at home, Erling Haaland scored his second in the 80th minute to go up 2-1. They lost 3-2.
This on the heels of a late collapse against Paris St. Germain where a 3-1 lead turned into a 4-3 loss.
So, in the league, coming off a 5-1 thrashing by Arsenal, the defensive frailty is an issue. And so is qualification for the Champions League next season. They’re currently out, in fifth, two points back of Chelsea. Bournemouth are in seventh, but just one point behind City and three back of that cherished fourth spot.
In between City and Bournemouth are Newcastle, who visit City this weekend. Level on points and goal difference, they’re behind City only on goals scored.
If City can’t come back against Real in Madrid in the second leg, they’ll be out of this year’s competition before the knockout round and now they’re in the middle of a four-team scrap, maybe five if you include Aston Villa, who are just six points back, to qualify for next season’s tournament.
That makes these games between those clubs so important. And after the Newcastle match City face Liverpool, Spurs, and then third-place Nottingham Forest. It’s approaching that time of the season.
This week’s slate
February 14: Brighton vs. Chelsea.
February 15: Leicester vs. Arsenal; Aston Villa vs. Ipswich; Fulham vs. Nottingham Forest; Manchester City vs. Newcastle; Southampton vs. Bournemouth; West Ham vs. Brentford; Crystal Palace vs. Everton.
February 16: Liverpool vs. Wolves; Tottenham vs. Manchester United.
February 19: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool