“Events, dear boy, events.” As British prime minister Harold Macmillan opined half a century ago, they are what politicians most worry about. They upend the best laid plans, as they are doing in Canada today.
Over the past month, the combination of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and U.S. President Donald Trump’s return has shifted Canadian public opinion. Nanos’ latest national poll shows the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals narrowing to eight points from a high of 26, at 38 and 30 per cent, respectively. A Leger poll shows the Liberals once again leading in the province of Quebec. Other surveys reveal similar movement.
Why? Because the ballot question has changed. It’s no longer who’s the best to tackle inflation, build more houses and take down the PM. Trudeau is leaving. Trump has arrived. He has slapped 25 per cent tariffs on our steel and aluminum, and potentially everything else, as of March 12. He threatens almost daily to make Canada the 51st state. The U.S. has morphed from friend to foe, and our political class is scrambling to adjust.
The Conservatives have pivoted from opposing to proposing, from Axe the Tax to Canada First. Leader Pierre Poilievre is making videos from Iqaluit, where he wants to set up a military base and dispatch 2,000 more Rangers to patrol the North. The Conservatives are organizing a rally in Ottawa on Saturday, which happens to be Flag Day, a holiday most of us probably ignored. Now, it takes on new meaning. The party is wrapping itself in the Maple Leaf, like it did during the Convoy, somewhat ironically, but the target is now our neighbour to the south.
The Liberals are busy barrelling through their leadership race, which concludes March 9, a few days after Trump’s tariffs are set to take effect. Barring a disastrous debate performance by candidate Mark Carney later this month, the party appears ready to crown the former governor of the Bank of Canada as leader, and pull the rip cord on a federal election. There’s no reason to wait around: the Liberals have momentum in the polls, bringing back the House would see the government fall anyway, and the country needs an administration with a clear mandate to manage the next four years.
So who is the best politician to tackle Trump? To answer the question, we need to first consider what kind of leader the U.S. president is. The common wisdom is that he’s a businessman, a negotiator, purely transactional. He puts America First and will shake down allies and enemies in equal measure to get what he wants: more jobs at home and more money to pay for tax cuts and military spending.
But that’s a superficial assessment. Trump’s statements on Canada, Panama, Greenland and Gaza belie a different worldview, and a greater agenda. In speech to supporters in Winnipeg, Carney dubbed Trump the Voldemort of politicians. He isn’t like anything we have seen in the free world. Like J.K. Rowling’s villain, Trump has taken the globe back to an era where might meant right and national borders meant squat. The greatest irony is that America was founded by people looking to get away from a king who ruled by fiat, with absolute power. Now, they’ve elected one.
So does Canada have a Harry Potter? A magic wizard who will take down the evil lord? Is it Poilievre in his parka, or Carney in his suit?
There is no clear answer, for two reasons. First, Trump, like events, is wholly unpredictable, and second, there is no one person who can do this alone. Canadians must all pull together, businesspeople, workers, young, old, rich, poor and in-between. For too long we have coasted on the goodwill of the United States. We have allowed our productivity to stagnate, our security to grow lax. We need to drop internal barriers, strengthen internal bonds, and show that we aren’t a plum for picking.
Whoever wins the next election should inspire us to up our game together. The ballot question should not be who can best tackle Trump, but who can best unite Canadians to build a better country.
National Post
Tasha Kheiriddin is Postmedia’s national politics columnist.