Reform UK is eyeing three electoral targets in the seats of the Labour MPs who have been suspended by the party and are under intense pressure to resign from office, therefore triggering a by-election.
Andrew Gwynne, who was also a health minister, was sacked yesterday after it emerged he had sent antisemitic, racist messages to a WhatsApp group called ‘Trigger Me Timbers’.
The MP for Gorton and Denton revealed his hope a pensioner would die before the next local elections and that a constituent would be ‘mown down by a truck’.
Gwynne also described an American psychologist as ‘too militaristic and too Jewish’ and said the only reason Diane Abbott was representing Labour at PMQs was because ‘it’s Black History Month.’
This was followed closely by the suspension of Oliver Ryan, MP for Burnley, who was part of the same group and took no action to rebut Gwynne’s messages.
Reports have stated that Ryan also mocked a Labour MP for his sexuality and tore into the vice-chairman of the local Labour Party in the group.
The pair join Mike Amesbury, elected as Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby, who was suspended last year for sucker-punching a constituent in a late-night, booze-fuelled street brawl.
It is understood that Amesbury, who has pled guilty to assault and is awaiting sentencing, will not have the Labour whip restored.
Labour has suspended MPs Mike Amesbury, Andrew Gwynne and Oliver Ryan, sparking by-election rumours
Getty/ HoC
All three suspended MPs are facing intense calls from the public and opposition MPs to resign from office, something that would trigger three by-elections in a nightmare scenario for Keir Starmer.
This is because voters tend to use by-elections to punish the incumbent party as it is a rare opportunity to vent frustration with the government’s latest policies.
Labour has enacted several deeply unpopular policies, namely stripping pensioners of the winter fuel payment, slapping farmers with death duties and raising taxes by £40billion.
In the event of resignations, GB News has analysed latest poll aggregating models to see how public opinion is trending in each of the suspended MPs’ constituencies and can reveal it is Reform UK who are best placed to profit.
Oliver Ryan / Burnley
According to the Nowcast model, which aggregates UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, Oliver Ryan’s seat of Burnley would flip to Reform if an election was held tomorrow.
Ryan won the seat by 3,400 votes in July 2024, beating the Lib Dems (second), the Tories (third) and Reform (fourth).
But the model shows Reform would enjoy a huge 10 per cent swing, boosting them into a comfortable first place.
Andrew Gwynne / Gorton and Denton
Gwynne won the traditionally safe Labour seat of Gorton and Denton by a massive 13,413 votes in July 2024, beating Reform into second.
The Nowcast model suggest Labour would still win the seat relatively comfortably, albeit with a reduced gap to Reform.
However, with Labour seemingly stumbling from unpopular decision to unpopular decision, a by-election in Gorton and Denton would still be dangerous for Starmer who may struggle to get the Labour vote out.
Mike Amesbury / Runcorn and Helsby
The ‘sucker-punch’ MP’s safe Labour seat is another that should stay red, unless Reform can pull off an upset.
The ‘disruptor’ party is the best placed of the rest to challenge for the seat, with the Nowcast model projecting them to jump to second as their vote share swells ten per cent.
Amesbury triumphed over Reform by 14,696 votes in July 2024.
Current projections for Runcorn and Helsby (Mike Amesbury), Burnley (Oliver Ryan) and Gorton and Denton (Andrew Gwynne)
ElectionMapsUK
Will there be by-elections?
Perhaps the most likely constituency to see a by-election is Amesbury’s Runcorn and Helsby.
If the disgraced MP receives a custodial or suspended sentence or is suspended from the House of Commons for more than 10 days, a recall petition to trigger a by-election can take place.
It is for this reason Reform UK activists are already campaigning hard in the constituency.
If Amesbury was jailed for a year or more, he would automatically lose his seat, though this is extremely unlikely.
In the case of Gwynne and Ryan, it remains to be seen what more the ongoing investigation discovers.
While the pair have not been arrested, both are facing calls to resign as MPs, including from Labour veteran and Mother of the House Diane Abbott.
Further evidence of hateful messages would intensify these calls and increase chances of a resignation, triggering a by-election.
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The four Labour MPs who have had the whip restored
HoC
It comes after Labour restored the whip for four of seven MPs suspended in July 2024 for voting against the government on the two-child benefit cap.
Richard Burgon, Ian Byrne, Imran Hussain and Rebecca Long-Bailey were all reinstated into the Labour party last week after six months sitting as independents.
John McDonnell, Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana remain suspended, despite the original suspension term of six months lapsing.
Labour will be keen to avoid by-elections at all costs after a YouGov poll put Reform ahead nationally again today.
It means the respected pollsters have given Reform a national lead in consecutive polls for the first time, a major milestone.
Reform has been approached for comment.