The asteroid that was discovered to be heading for Earth has almost doubled in risk in less than a week. Discovered in December 2024, Asteroid 2024 YRY triggered global planetary defence procedures after calculations found it had a 1.3% chance of hitting earth on December 22, 2032.
Now, that risk has almost doubled according to new data, with the 90-metre-wide asteroid having a 2.3% of colliding with Earth. NASA estimates the rock weighs just shy of a quarter of a million tonnes, and if it were to hit Earth, the asteroid would explode with the force of more than 2.2 million tonnes of TNT.
Whilst the increased risk is alarming, NASA have reminded people there still is an “extremely low possibility” the asteroid will collide with Earth. Unlike what happened to the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, Asteroid 2024 YR4 would not result in the extinction of humanity.
However, 90 metre-wide space rocks, which impact Earth on average every few thousand years, still have the potential to cause catastrophic damage on the city scale.
A NASA blog stated: “Additional observations and analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4 indicate that its impact probability with Earth has increased to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
“NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.”
The agency added that the asteroid’s “impact probability will become better known” over time, and “it is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list.”
If observations do not rule out an impact in 2032, the asteroid will likely remain on space agencies’ risk lists until it comes back into view in 2028. Possible interventions include deflecting the asteroid with an intercepting spacecraft.
When the Asteroid was first identified, NASA shared: “Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”