As tractors gridlock central London this afternoon, polling has revealed the extent of Labour’s collapse in support in the countryside with scores of seats flipping to the right.
Rural folks are outraged at Reeves’ plans to tax farmers at 20 per cent on assets over £1million, something Labour promised not to do pre-election but immediately reneged on in their October budget.
Farmers have described the death tax as ‘punishing’, warning the Chancellor her plans will break the backbone of British agriculture because farmers will be forced to sell land to cover huge tax bills, or sell up completely.
This would harm the UK’s food security at a time of increased uncertainty in Europe and deprive thousands of farming families of their livelihoods, rural lobby groups have warned.
Labour has repeatedly doubled down on the tax, stating it is a ‘fair and balanced way’ to fill the £22billion black hole and that only a small number of farms will be affected.
Nationwide polling has revealed the public – particularly in rural seats – is not buying Labour’s story, however.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows Labour would lose 163 seats (40 per cent of its representation) if an election was held tomorrow.
GB News has analysed the model with particular attention towards Labour’s rural seats, many of which voted Labour for the first time in generations in July 2024.
The analysis used 50 of Labour’s rural seats with the smallest majorities and then looked at the current Nowcast projection.
It revealed Starmer’s party would lose a whopping 45 of these seats if an election was held tomorrow.
EXPLORE: Projection for Labour’s rural seats
Projection of Labour rural seats shows a mixture of Tory and Reform gains
GBN
Of these 50 seats, 21 would flip to the Conservatives who have historically been the party of the countryside.
Kemi Badenoch has been vociferous in critiquing Reeves’ family farm tax and this modelling appears to show it translating to support to some extent.
However, there has been another party capitalising on the countryside’s animosity toward Labour, Reform UK.
Nigel Farage railed against Reeves’ inheritance tax plans this morning, telling protestors: “The family farm should not be driven out of existence. Politically, I think we can win this.
“It isn’t just the farms that it hits, it’s family businesses as well. The whole thing is monstrous!
“The country now is going to come together now with lots of different groups, and let’s just stand up and say no to death taxes full stop.
“End death taxes – they’re wrong, they’re immoral, at every level. And the way your community is being treated is unbelievable.”
Nigel Farage calls for an end to death taxes at farmers protest today
GBN
GB News analysis found Farage’s party would win 19 of the 50 seats, sweeping to power in traditionally safe Tory seats like South Norfolk (Tory since 1950, barring July 2024) and safe Labour seats like Llanelli (Labour since 1922).
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats opposition to the farm tax has appeared to not make a dent in Labour’s rural seats, while the SNP are set to gain three seats.
These findings confirm Reeves’ farm tax has come at a heavy political price, decimating Labour’s support in the countryside.
Reports have indicated many rural Labour MPs have been privately asking whether the measly amount the tax will raise (£520million a year by 2030) is worth wrecking their slim majorities for.
That number is enough to fund the NHS for one day and five hours and is 50 times smaller than the amount Reeves’ Employers’ National Insurance hike, dubbed the ‘jobs tax, will raise.
It comes as hundreds of tractors gridlock central London today in a ‘Change your tune, Starmer’ rally organised by Save British Farming.
“Successive governments have failed to internalise the lessons learnt from the last two world wars when reliance on imports left Britain exposed, ensuring the ‘Dig for Britain’ effort and food rationing,” said a spokesperson for the group.
“History does repeat itself and this Government assumes that cheap imports from volatile regions will always be available.
“We do not have an Empire any more to redirect food supplies to Britain and urgently need Government to think again as global tensions are increasing.
“Failure to heed the lessons of the past is ensuring we are marching into a food crisis and being held to ransom by hostile nations.”
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Farm protest, Feb 10
Getty
Farage, who is attending the rally,told protesters: “I think somebody in the Treasury got their sums wrong when they set the financial limits.
“Or could it be they just want lots of land, because they’re planning for another 5 million people to come into the country in the next few years.
“They want to cover tens of thousands of grade one agricultural land in places like Lincolnshire with solar panels. Could it be there is an even deeper, more sinister agenda behind what they’re doing?”
He added: “Either way, what they’re doing is wrong. And I think the one thing the people of this country have is a strong affinity and a strong feeling for the countryside, and that countryside is as beautiful as it is because of families.
“Be it small farms or bigger estates that have managed this land for centuries and left it as it is, so let’s get the whole country behind this campaign.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “Our commitment to farmers remains steadfast.
“This Government will invest £5 billion into farming over the next two years, the largest budget for sustainable food production in our country’s history.
“We are going further with reforms to boost profits for farmers by backing British produce and reforming planning rules on farms to support food production.
“Our reform to Agricultural and Business Property Relief will mean estates will pay a reduced effective inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than standard 40%, and payments can be spread over 10 years, interest-free.
“This is a fair and balanced approach, which fixes the public services we all rely on, affecting around 500 estates a year.”
Defra has been approached for comment.
FULL SEAT BREAKDOWN (Constituency / MP / Majority / Projection)
TORY GAINS
Peterborough / Andrew Pakes / 118 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland / Luke Myer / 214 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Forest of Dean / Matt Bishop / 278 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Derbyshire Dales / John Whitby / 350 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Aylesbury / Laura Kyrke-Smith / 630 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
North Somerset / Sadik Al-Hassan / 639 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Redditch / Chris Bloore / 789 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Lichfield / Dave Robertson / 810 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Ribble Valley / Maya Ellis / 856 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Pendle and Clitheroe / Jonathan Hinder / 902 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Rother Valley / Jake Richards / 998 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
North West Leicestershire / Amanda Hack / 1012 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
South Dorset / Lloyd Hatton / 1048 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Suffolk Coastal / Jenny Riddell-Carpenter / 1070 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Clwyd North / Gill German / 1196 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket / Peter Prinsley / 1452 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Reading West and Mid Berkshire / Olivia Bailey / 1361 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Mid Derbyshire / Jonathan Davies / 1878 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Mid and South Pembrokeshire / Henry Tufnell / 1878 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Buckingham and Bletchley / Callum Anderson / 2421 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
South Norfolk / Ben Goldsborough / 2826 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
North East Hertfordshire / Chris Hinchliff / 1923 / CONSERVATIVE GAIN
REFORM GAINS
North West Cambridgeshire / Sam Carling / 39 / REFORM GAIN
Sittingbourne and Sheppey / Kevin McKenna / 355 / REFORM GAIN
Stoke-on-Trent South / Allison Gardner / 627 / REFORM GAIN
South West Norfolk / Terry Jermy / 630 / REFORM GAIN
Tamworth / Sarah Edwards / 1382 / REFORM GAIN
Llanelli / Nia Griffith / 1504 / REFORM GAIN
North East Derbyshire / Louise Jones / 1753 / REFORM GAIN
Ashford / Sojan Joseph / 1779 / REFORM GAIN
South East Cornwall / Anna Gelderd / 1911 / REFORM GAIN
Lowestoft / Jess Asato / 2016 / REFORM GAIN
North Warwickshire and Bedworth / Rachel Taylor / 2198 / REFORM GAIN
Burton and Uttoxeter / Jacob Collier / 2266 / REFORM GAIN
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / Lee Pitcher / 2311 / REFORM GAIN
St Austell and Newquay / Noah Law / 2470 / REFORM GAIN
Harlow / Chris Vince / 2504 / REFORM GAIN
Rochester and Strood / Lauren Edwards / 2930 / REFORM GAIN
Cannock Chase / Josh Newbury / 3125 / REFORM GAIN
Amber Valley / Linsey Farnsworth / 3554 / REFORM GAIN
Folkestone and Hythe / Tony Vaughan / 3729 / REFORM GAIN
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr / Steve Witherden / 3815 / REFORM GAIN
SNP GAINS
Stirling and Strathallan / Chris Kane / 1394 / SNP GAIN
North Ayrshire and Arran / Irene Campbell / 3551 / SNP GAIN
Glenrothes and Mid Fife / Richard Baker / 2954 / SNP GAIN
LABOUR HOLDS
Hexham / Joe Morris / 3713 / LABOUR HOLD
Isle of Wight West / Richard Quigley / 3177 / LABOUR HOLD
Banbury / Sean Woodcock / 3256 / LABOUR HOLD
Monmouthshire / Catherine Fookes / 3338 / LABOUR HOLD
Congleton / Sarah Russell / 3387 / LABOUR HOLD