A landmark YouGov poll recently put Reform UK ahead for the first time, topping the table at 25 per cent, with Labour and the Conservatives trailing behind at 24 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
It represents a huge upswing in support for Reform, but the road to Number 10 is still long.
For Nigel Farage to enter Downing Street, Reform must not only maintain this momentum but solve the numbers problem, the key to any government’s survival. Here’s how Nigel Farage and Reform can secure power.
Reform wins a majority in Parliament
A landmark YouGov poll recently put Reform UK ahead for the first time, topping the table at 25 per cent, with Labour and the Conservatives trailing behind at 24 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
It represents a huge upswing in support for Reform, but the road to Number 10 is still long. For Nigel Farage to enter Downing Street, Reform must not only maintain this momentum but solve the numbers problem, the key to any government’s survival.
Reform UK’s path to power REVEALED: The five ways Nigel Farage can become Britain’s next PM – Keith Bays
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Largest party but no overall majority
Farage could still become Prime Minister without an outright majority.
The key is overtaking the Conservative party in seats.
If Reform UK wins more MPs than Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative party, Farage will have the strongest claim to be Prime Minister- and the upper hand in any potential deal-making.
Confidence and supply
One option for Reform UK to govern as a minority government would be through a confidence and supply deal.
If only a small number of MPs were needed to pass legislation, Farage’s party could strike deals with natural allies such as the DUP, given their shared policy views on the European Union.
Reform could also negotiate with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, securing support from the party on an issue-by-issue basis, including the King’s Speech. While these deals often lead to short-lived and unstable governments, they would also give Reform UK a foothold in power, setting the stage for an early election to seek a stronger mandate.
Coalition government
A coalition agreement with the Conservatives could offer a different path to power. This would see Reform as the senior partner, with both political parties sitting together in Cabinet.
Recent history shows such arrangements can serve in the national interest, though infighting tends to be inevitable. If this means removing Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and safeguarding Britain’s farmers, pensioners, businesses, and private schools, it’s an option both parties must seriously think about.
Conservative and Reform merger
The Conservative Party, founded 122 years ago, boasts a legacy of leaders like Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher. But after a damaging election defeat, terrible finances, and polling in third position, they are at a crossroads.
With defections and many Tory MPs closer ideologically to Reform UK than their own party, could the Conservatives merge into Reform to unite the right? As Reform’s popularity and funding grow, joining forces could be the only way to defeat the left and protect Britain.
Danger from the Left
If Reform UK falls short of 28 per cent in the polls, and if neither Reform UK nor the Tories secure 326 seats individually or collectively, Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and the Greens could join forces in a rainbow coalition to lock the right out of power for years to come.
This would be a fractious but dangerous relationship, with the SNP and Plaid Cymru likely to demand greater devolution or a second referendum, threatening the future of the UK. When the time comes, Reform UK and the Conservative Party must consider working together in the national interest to remove Starmer’s Labour Party.
The momentum is with Reform
The energy of Reform is incredible. The rallies across the country say it all. The party is on the rise, and there’s only one direction they’re going, and that’s up!