OTTAWA — Canada’s restaurants face an uncertain 2025.
As revealed this week in their most recent quarterly report, Restaurants Canada says their members are struggling with high costs, a diminished labour pool and now threats of punitive tariffs from the United States.
Restaurants Canada VP Kris Barnier described an endless cycle of inflationary pressure forcing restaurant owners to raise prices to cover increasing supply costs, prompting cash-strapped consumers to eat out less.
“You’re seeing households spending thousands, if not tens of thousands more dollars every year on mortgages, plus everything from from cellphone bills to energy to insurance,” he said. “We are the first thing that they pull from.”
In their quarterly report, restaurant, catering and bar sales are expected to nominally increase 3.9% this year over 2024 — but when adjusted for inflation, real growth for the year is expected to be closer to 0.8%.
That’s on top of pressures still being felt post-pandemic.
According to surveys conducted by Restaurants Canada, more than one-third of Canadians aren’t eating out as much as they used to.
As well, one in four of Canadian households earning under $50,000 annually didn’t eat out at all last summer.
But while the threat of tariffs is putting the industry on-edge — particularly bars and full-service restaurants that serve alcohol — the province can help by cutting mandated markups owners are forced to pay the LCBO, Barnier said.
As well, the ongoing tax holiday, announced by the federal government last year, gave Canada’s restaurant industry a $1.5 billion sales boost.
“When we talk to members, they’re seeing a little bit of a difference,” he said.”
“Total revenue might be roughly about the same, but the difference is, is they’re not having to give up a good chunk of that to tax — so the revenue might look similar, but the difference is, they get to keep a bigger share of that and protect a lot of jobs.”
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