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TOP STORY
While Canada was able to stave off U.S. tariffs, the saga was marked by a cascade of shifting Trump administration grievances against Canada, ranging from border woes to dairy quotas and banking regulation.
And according to a new U.S. poll, even Americans never really understood what the dispute was about.
A YouGov poll published Monday found that just 21 per cent of U.S. respondents thought that their president was threatening a trade war with Canada “to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking” — the reason often cited by Trump.
Other respondents said the tariffs were a bid to raise more tax money (eight per cent), a protectionist play to increase U.S. manufacturing (14 per cent), a strategy to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Canada (seven per cent) or the opening shots of a move to annex Canada (six per cent). A small number (three per cent) also believed that the imposition of blanket taxes on Canadian imports was being done “to lower prices for Americans.”
But the largest group, by far, didn’t seem to have any clear idea why the tariffs were being threatened. A plurality of 42 per cent said either that they were “not sure” why the tariff fight was happening, or that “some other reason” lay behind it.
Confusion was even rampant among Trump supporters. Just 38 per cent of Republican voters thought the threatened trade war was to extract border security concessions from Ottawa, with 41 per cent thinking it had economic motivations such as onshoring U.S. manufacturing or reducing Canadian imports.
Canada was among a host of Western Hemisphere countries to be hit with threats of U.S. sanctions or consequences in recent weeks.
Last week, Colombia was threatened with immediate 25-per-cent tariffs after it refused to accept deportation flights of Colombian nationals. Panama was hit with threats of unspecific consequences if it refused to “reduce China influence” over the Panama Canal.
And Mexico was cited in a twin executive order threatening tariffs against Canada. Both countries were told to stop “illegal immigration” and “poisonous fentanyl” from entering the United States, or face tariffs. In social media posts, Trump also accused both countries of maintaining “open borders” with the United States.
But while White House messaging stayed relatively consistent on Mexico’s need to curb smuggling at its northern border, Trump administration rhetoric hit Canada with a sweep of shifting demands, including repeated annexation threats.
Trump said several times the United States is “subsidizing” Canada by about $200 billion per year. It’s potentially a reference to the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, which exists because of outsized purchases of Alberta oil — and even then the deficit is only about US$41 billion.
“With respect to Trump’s assertion that the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion per year, it’s unclear where this number is derived,” read one TD Bank analysis of the claim.
In a Monday morning call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump seemed to demand increased access for U.S. banks in Canada.
“Canada doesn’t even allow U.S. banks to open or do business there. What’s that all about?” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. The claim isn’t entirely correct; while Canadian banking is dominated by its big six chartered banks such as Royal Bank or TD, most of the major U.S. banks have some sort of Canadian presence.
That same day, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance seemed to say that the tariffs were a bid to “rebalance” U.S. trade with Canada.
“Do Americans realize that the Canadians charge massive, massive tariffs on our products that go into the country of Canada,” said Vance at a speech in Ohio.
The comment was likely a reference to Canadian import controls on U.S. dairy. Dairy imports are subject to strict quotas, and any off-quota imports are hit by tariffs of up to 300 per cent.
Said Vance, “if the Canadians are going to use their economic power to penalize Americans, I think it’s totally reasonable for the American President to say we’re done being taken advantage of.”
Tariffs of any kind have never been particularly popular among U.S. voters, with multiple polls showing that most Americans thought they would do more harm than good.
Of those, Canadian tariffs were the least popular. A January Ipsos poll found that just 37 per cent of U.S. respondents favoured some form of tariffs on Canada, against 60 per cent who opposed it.
Those same respondents were slightly more open to tariffs on Mexico, with 41 per cent saying yes to 55 per cent opposed.
IN OTHER NEWS
It was always a little strange for the White House to mention Canada in the same breath as Mexico on the subject of fentanyl trafficking, given the disparity between both countries’ contribution to the U.S. fentanyl crisis. In a much-cited figure, U.S. Customs and Border Protection seized 21,000 pounds of fentanyl coming in from Mexico in 2024, and 43 pounds of fentanyl from Canada. But in a column for the National Post, Anthony Furey lays out how Canada is just starting to transform into a net exporter for illegal fentanyl. Authorities have recently busted up fentanyl “super labs” in Ontario, Alberta and B.C. And even Global Affairs has said in a report that with Canadian-origin fentanyl showing up in the likes of Australia and the U.S., “Canada is now a source (and transit) country for fentanyl to some markets.”
Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney hasn’t done a tremendous amount of Canadian media since announcing his campaign on Jan. 16 – his communications strategy has consisted almost entirely of web videos and scripted speeches. So it’s somewhat of note that his two main sit-down interviews during the tariff crisis were with foreign outlets: A five-minute appearance with CNN’s Jake Tapper, and an exclusive interview with BBC Newsnight.
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