Can we stop pretending that the Ontario election has only one issue, which is authorizing Premier Doug Ford to spend tens of billions of dollars to protect Ontario from American tariffs?
U.S. President Donald Trump took much of the urgency out of Ford’s pitch Monday by delaying his onerous tariffs for at least a month. While the president’s end game remains unclear, the delay means Ford had to backtrack for now on crowd-pleasing announcements like pulling American booze out of LCBO stores and cancelling a broadband contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink company.
The big blow to Ford’s election strategy came not from the president, but from the premier himself. Ford has said many times that the sheer magnitude of his planned tariff supports require an immediate mandate because it will cost “tens of billions of dollars.”
Ford released his actual plan Monday, and the price tag is nowhere near that. The big ticket item is $10 billion in support for Ontario employers, but it’s a six-month deferral of provincially administered taxes. The businesses will still have to pay. The cost to the provincial government is minimal.
The other significant piece is $3 billion in relief for small businesses on payroll taxes and premiums. They don’t have to pay that back.
The rest consists of a bit of a discount on wholesale booze prices for bars and restaurants, a small pot of money for communities most affected by tariffs, an expanded made-in-Ontario tax credit for businesses, and $600 million to “encourage” companies to invest in Ontario, a form of corporate inducement to which the government has already committed billions. Earlier, the government announced $1.1 billion in employment supports and training.
In all, discounting the repayable amount, the whole thing comes to about $5.2 billion. It’s not really the kind of sum that requires an election when one considers that the provincial government plans to spend just over $214 billion this fiscal year.
In fact, the relative thrift of the plan comes as a relief. It’s certainly more reassuring than the idea of the provincial government spending tens of billions of dollars combatting the impacts of tariffs. That’s the federal government’s job, if it comes to that. The provincial plan even points to that, asking the feds to “fairly and quickly distribute retaliatory tariff revenue.”
For Ford, the tariff plan has achieved its goal. A new Leger poll for the National Post shows Ford miles ahead of his competitors with 47-per-cent vote support. Sixteen per cent of those polled say their impression of Ford has improved during the campaign, the best of the party leaders.
The poll shows that 46 per cent approve of Ford’s tariff election call while 39 per cent do not and 15 per cent don’t know. Ford’s tariff focus has helped push the issue into greater prominence. Those polled say that it’s the second-most important issue for them, tied with housing affordability.
Ford’s tariff plan is in place, voters like it, and more tariff moves are unlikely for the duration of the election. The right approach for Ontario and Canada now is diplomacy, not bluster or threats.
It’s time for Ford to pivot to other issues. He won’t be able to spend the next three weeks going on about tariffs, and Ontarians deserve a fuller idea of what else the PC leader intends to do with the four-year mandate he’s seeking.
There are two issues Ford needs to address; neither has been a strength for his government. It’s no surprise that the Leger poll identifies the cost of living as the top issue with voters. Their other main concern is housing affordability, which is tied with tariff concerns.
Ford has attempted to solve Ontario’s housing woes by increasing housing supply, but it hasn’t gone well. In 2024, the government itself forecasted just 81,000 housing starts, far short of its 125,000 target. That’s not the government’s fault, but having set himself up as the guy who can fix the problem, Ford needs to offer a new approach.
Affordability hasn’t quite been Ford’s strong suit, either. He has relied on repeatedly extended gas tax cuts, cancelling the fee for licence plate stickers, and the famous $200 pre-election cheque.
By contrast, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has a tax plan that would remove development charges from new “middle-class housing,” saving home buyers up to $170,000 by transferring the burden to the provincial government. Crombie says she would also implement income tax cuts Ford promised, but didn’t deliver, and take the HST off home heating and electricity bills. In all, the Liberals say that will save the average household $1,150. As well, they will cut the small-business tax rate in half.
It’s unlikely that Crombie will have the time or the political skill to take maximum political advantages of those policies, but that’s what is on offer to voters. Ford should make sure has a response to them.
National Post
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