Like others, Canadians now know there’s a new sheriff in town, and he’s neither polite nor gentle. The question is how to co-exist with a raging bully whose economy absorbs nearly three-quarters of Canada’s exports and one trillion in two-way trade.
What his fans call Donald Trump’s drive for “muscular pax Americana” is not exactly warming hearts around the world. In December, Britain sent an ambassador with a well-expressed disdain for the new president to Washington. The Guardian predictably calls for Europeans and Brits to fight to preserve the continent’s disastrous welfare and climate regime. Trump’s alienated not just Canada’s New Democrats, but also Conservatives who share something of a common agenda with Trumpism.
Ironically, this is occurring when many citizens in Europe are already voting for anti-migrant, nationalism and culturally conservative candidates, producing leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni who already has an amicable relationship with Trump. Canadians and other foreigners need to understand that, for Trump, everything is about making a deal, starting with outrageous demands and threats.
In the end, Trump will make the best deal he can strike, and, under the Conservatives at least, there’s hope that some common ground can be struck. Ignore the imbecilic statements about taking over Canada, Greenland or the Panama Canal, and look to strike a deal that makes sense.
But let’s be honest here: you can’t blame Trump for the current chaotic state of the world. The world “rules-based” system was falling apart — as seen in the Red Sea, Palestine, Ukraine, and throughout Africa — when the supposed “adults in the room” were in charge.
What Trump lacks, at least so far, is a strategic sense of how to build an alliance against the China-Russia-Iran-Venezuela-North Korea axis. Recently, Doug Ford proposed such an “Am-Can” alliance that would leverage the power of our huge continent’s huge resource base.
The cultural fit is not perfect, but our binational ties make us, as the Chinese would say, as close as teeth and lips. We share a huge border, similar resource bases — much of our cross-border trade consists of oil, lumber as well as some cars — and for the most part, a common language as Canada does with Britain and our fellow commonwealth countries, Australia, and New Zealand.
In this light, Britain’s Keir Starmer attempted to cozy up to China and tie the country to the EU to “Trump-proof” his declining realm, as if enlisting as vassals to Beijing offers a brighter future. Rather than fight each other, the U.S., U.K., Europe and Canada need to focus on the real threat posed particularly by China, and would do well to pay attention to Beijing’s stated aim to become the leading global superpower by 2050.
We have encouraged this by allowing China to continue its mercantilist policy, wiping out western competitors, while procuring resources from southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, notably Brazil and Mexico.
Fortunately, this could be an ideal time for the West to push back. The Communist Party’s assault on property rights and the rule of law is driving foreign companies to reconsider their tech investments. Private equity is finding it difficult to get their funds out. Previous projections that China might surpass the U.S. in terms of aggregate economic output as soon as 2028 are being readjusted to 2036 or to never occurring at all.
Sorry, Liberals and America-haters, but only the U.S. has the oomph to lead a credible response. Over the past 15 years, the eurozone economy grew about 6 per cent and Canada compared with 82 per cent for the U.S. according to International Monetary Fund data. Similarly, last year, Canada was behind U.S. in per capita GDP by 43 per cent, a figure that could hit an unprecedented 50 per cent this year.
Clearly, the West needs a wakeup call, and Trump, however odious, is it. He could help both of our countries if, as part of his trade policy, he can get Japan, South Korea, India and Europe to replace Russian and Iranian energy with energy from North America. As Washington rethinks how to build up its defense establishment and intelligence services, there could be more room to maneuver as the emerging leaders in Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and much of Scandinavia, are more likely to be more focused on economics and defense than green absolutism or gender politics .
For his part, Trump needs to realize these countries’ buy-in is critical to his success. Linking with Canada, the U.K., Japan, India and Europe, the anti-authoritarian allies would be unbeatable as during the Cold War when NATO stopped Soviet expansion and liberal capitalist growth left the Russians hopelessly behind. Until China utterly changed the picture through massive mercantilism, trade was a key driver of progress.
The arguments for rebuilding alliances and creating a more equitable trade regime are compelling. Peel back Trump’s bravado and you realize his premise is that America is no longer all-powerful and successful — that’s why the last word in MAGA is “again.” Trump knows America is relatively “weak” in terms of manufacturing prowess, workforce development and increasingly even military power. The Trumpist drive to renegotiate alliances is driven by realization of the limits of American predominance. Although there is an isolationist tendency among MAGA activists, most U.S. voters are in favour of expanding the country’s “global presence.”
To achieve what Trump calls a “new golden age” the U.S. needs to build bridges, even as they seek to raise the tolls. There are things others can provide to make America and the West great again. Europe, Japan and South Korea retain great engineering and manufacturing skills while Canada excels in terms of critical resources like oil, strategic minerals, foodstuffs, water, as well as considerable technology. As powerful as the U.S. remains, the battle against China and its satraps requires all hands-on deck. If he wishes to succeed, Trump must realize that America first cannot succeed as America alone.
National Post