Mexico, Canada and China account for more than 40 percent of total goods traded with the United States.
The United States has postponed planned 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports by a month, following 11th-hour calls between President Donald Trump and leaders from Canada and Mexico on Monday.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to boost border security to prevent the trafficking of drugs and migrants into the US, averting a trade war for now.
But the 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods took effect on Tuesday, attracting retaliatory measures from Beijing. Chinese goods have already been subjected to previous tariffs starting in Trump’s first term between 2017 and 2021.
The tariff war by the US, the second-largest goods trader in the world after China, has rattled markets worldwide. From January to November 2024, the value of goods traded between the US and the world reached $4.88 trillion, with $2.98 trillion in exports and $1.90 trillion in imports.
The United States’s top trading partners – Mexico, Canada and China – account for more than 40 percent of total goods traded, valued at more than $2 trillion.
What are tariffs and how do they work?
A tariff is a government-imposed tax on imported goods and services, paid by businesses bringing them into the country. Designed to protect domestic industries, tariffs often drive up costs for consumers by making foreign products more expensive, potentially reducing demand.
For example:
- A Chinese exporter sells a pair of jeans to a US importer for $10.
- The US government imposes a 10 percent tariff on Chinese products.
- The US importer will now have to pay $1 extra to the federal government for the jeans, increasing its cost to $11.
- After adding expenses and profit, the jeans will be sold for $20.
- The US consumer will likely pay more for the jeans.
What does the pause on tariffs mean in Canada and Mexico?
Following talks with Trump, Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau both made commitments to bolster security at their shared borders with the US.
“I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday.
Following his call with Trump, Trudeau announced that Canada would move forward with its previously outlined $1.3bn border plan, while also committing to appointing a “fentanyl czar” and officially designating cartels as “terrorist” organisations.
“Fundamentally it’s very good news that tariffs have been paused and Canada needs to do everything possible to engage with Trump – work on border security issues etc,” Vina Nadjibulla, vice president, research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told Al Jazeera.
“But beyond the immediate crisis, we need to work on structural issues that led to this over-dependence on the US. We need to build capacity to export [to places other than the] US and invest in our own competitiveness,” Nadjibulla added.
Are tariffs a new idea?
No, tariffs have been used by several countries before. Historically, in the US from 1790 to 1860, tariffs produced 90 percent of federal revenue.
Tariffs can also be used to “punish” a foreign producer of goods for not abiding by international trade practices. In 2018, the US began placing tariffs on Chinese goods worth hundreds of billions citing unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. This marked the start of the US-China trade war, where items such as semiconductors, batteries and electronics such as washing machines were taxed.
In the same year, Trump also introduced a 25 percent levy on steel and 10 percent tariff on aluminium, affecting a number of countries including Canada, Mexico, India, Brazil and Argentina.
Why are tariffs used?
Tariffs are often used to protect certain domestic industries from foreign competitors. This happens by increasing the price of those imported goods. The notion behind tariffs is that buyers will choose domestic products over expensive foreign imports, which in turn will help the domestic industry grow. However, this isn’t always the case.
For example, for the US to produce avocados – 90 percent of which are imported from Mexico – would be a long and arduous feat given that avocados are produced in just three states: California, Florida and Hawaii.
Why did Trump impose tariffs?
During Trump’s presidential campaign, he promised to impose tariffs on the US’s biggest trading partners in retaliation over undocumented migrants and the flow of drugs, especially fentanyl.
Trump also emphasised using tariffs as a means to bolster domestic manufacturing and encourage foreign businesses to establish factories within the US territory.
Tariffs are also used to generate revenue for a country with the extra income from the taxes levied on imported goods being used for public spending. For example, in 2019, $79bn of revenue was generated in tariffs, double the value from 2017, according to the Brookings Institution. However, the majority of this burden was passed on to consumers who paid higher prices.
“During 2018-2020, President Trump mainly used tariffs as a bargaining chip,” Nadjibulla told Al Jazeera. “This time, the motivations seem broader, including a desire to bring more manufacturing back to the US, shift the tax burden away from income taxes and onto tariffs, and use tariffs both as leverage and as punishment. We’re looking at a much larger scale than we saw under Trump’s first term.”
What products will be affected by tariffs?
A range of goods will be heavily affected by Trump’s imposed tariffs. Based on what the US imports the most from Canada, Mexico and China, this will include items such as cars, fuel, computers and electrical equipment. Food items like avocados are also likely to see a price increase.
What are the tariffs Trump had planned to impose on Canada, Mexico and China?
Trump signed three executive orders placing 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil and an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
Canada is a large exporter of crude oil with 97 percent of its crude oil exports going to the US in 2023, while Mexico exports a large amount of produce such as fruit and vegetable as well as automobile parts.
China is a major exporter of electrical equipment and electronics including chips, laptops and smartphones.
What are retaliatory tariffs?
Canada, Mexico and China have all stated that they would react with retaliatory tariffs. Trudeau had said on Saturday that a 25 percent levy would be slapped on a slew of US imports, which have subsequently been paused.
Beijing criticised the latest tariff, saying it will challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO), an intergovernmental body responsible for regulating international trade. China has placed counter-tariffs on US imports that will come into effect on February 10.
What tariffs are already imposed on China?
Under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, US trade representatives wield power to counteract unfair trade practices by foreign countries. This has been at the heart of Washington’s trade war with China since 2018 when tariffs were placed on the world’s largest exporter.
In a significant move, the Biden administration expanded these tariffs in September 2024 to target items such as electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors and solar panels, with levies ranging between 25-100 percent.
Can tariffs lead to a trade war?
“It appears there’s a temporary pause on tariffs against Mexico and Canada. However, tariffs on China are likely to take effect on February 4, and President Trump has signalled additional tariffs against the EU and others. So yes, we could be heading into a trade war,” Nadjibulla told Al Jazeera.
“In response, countries will likely adopt a range of strategies – from direct retaliation to hedging their trade relationships among the US, China, and other partners. Globally, we can expect inflationary effects and significant disruptions to supply chains.”
Will this drive up inflation?
“Yes. Both the tariffs themselves and any mitigation measures – such as subsidies or support programmes for affected sectors – will contribute to inflation,” Nadjibulla said. “Higher prices associated with tariffs, combined with the cost of remedy efforts, will lead to inflationary pressures overall.”
What can consumers do to protect/plan for this?
“Where possible, buying local products and avoiding certain imports may help consumers manage rising costs,” Nadjibulla told Al Jazeera.
But they cannot completely escape the inflationary pressure triggered by the tariff war.
Will the prices of other items go up?
Yes, in most cases the cost of items will go up. This is not just final product goods, but capital goods too, which would increase production costs and result in higher costs for final products. Additionally, higher costs for raw materials and parts would raise prices through the supply chain.
According to an analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a US-based nonprofit organisation researching the global economy, machinery and electronics will face the largest import tax – given they are mostly sourced from China and because they currently face low tariff rates.
Other US imports from China likely to be hit the hardest would also include toys and sporting equipment.
Who pays the price?
Ultimately the consumer. US-based businesses will face paying higher taxes. In most cases, the cost of tariffs is indirectly picked up by consumers as importing businesses are likely to increase the price of said goods to manage the taxes levied.
“Consumers will shoulder much of the burden through higher prices, but businesses will also feel the impact. Industries such as the Canadian and US auto sectors may be especially hard-hit,” Nadjibulla from the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada said.
Can tariffs affect jobs?
In theory, the imposition of tariffs would encourage more domestic production, which, in turn, would require more employment. Similarly, if foreign companies are being encouraged to bring their factories to the United States, it would increase employment.
For example, after Trump imposed 20-50 percent tariffs on washing machines, more jobs were brought to two regions where appliances were not previously manufactured: Clarksville, Tennessee and Newberry, South Carolina.
In 2018, LG completed an investment in a new smart factory in Clarksville, to be staffed with 700 employees. Similarly, in 2018, Samsung built an appliance manufacturing facility in Newberry, South Carolina, hiring 1,000 employees.
The US administration would hope the latest tariff war will incentivise corporations to set up more factories and businesses in the US.