Distractions arise throughout an NBA season, but seldom as often as the week of the league’s trade deadline.
That week, of course, is upon us, with all deals needing to be made by 3 p.m. ET Thursday afternoon.
Plenty of Raptors have found themselves in rumours. Some, such as Bruce Brown, went through this last year as well (from the moment Brown arrived in Toronto in the Pascal Siakam deal, it was expected he would be moved again by last February). Veterans Chris Boucher and Kelly Olynyk have either heard their names in the rumour mill, like Boucher repeatedly, or actually been dealt themselves (Olynyk has been traded four times, including last year to his sixth team, Toronto).
The Raptors could be significant participants in the trade derby this year, even if their work will likely come on the periphery, and there’s no way anything that happens Thursday league-wide will approach Sunday morning’s jaw-dropping all-timer involving Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
Here’s where the Raptors stand, and why they are more likely than most teams to have some involvement in moves by Thursday:
WHY MIGHT RAPTORS DO SOMETHING?
It’s pretty simple. The list of teams that are under the luxury tax, have players on expiring contracts of various sizes they would be willing to move and aren’t in win-now mode is a short one.
Toronto is roughly $10 million US under the tax (unless another Doncic falls into their lap, there is no chance they make moves to go over this year, they want to collect payments from tax-paying teams, not pay millions to other franchises and waste a year being in the tax, etc.).
Brown’s $23-million deal is large, but could help make a big-name, multi-team trade work (hello Jimmy Butler). Boucher, who said “nobody is safe,” when asked by a couple of reporters Sunday what the Doncic deal means, is on a $10.81-million expiring contract, while Olynyk has admirers around the league, but teams might be hesitant to trade for him since he has another $13.44-million guaranteed contract for next season thanks to the extension he inked with the Raptors. There’s also Davion Mitchell, who is younger than the other three mentioned and has been a nice defensive upgrade off the bench. Mitchell is making $6.45 million and can become a restricted free agent, meaning the team who has him on the roster can match any outside offers, if he’s given a qualifying offer by the Raptors (or a team that trades for him) this summer.
WHAT ELSE MAKES A DEAL LIKELY?
The team also has its mid-level exception (up to $12.8 million), which can be used as a trade exception to take on salary (for example, if another team wants to get under the luxury tax or one of the new tax aprons the NBA now has and is willing to give out first or second round draft picks or a young player to do so, Toronto could be interested). Toronto can absorb multiple players with the exception, but can’t bundle the exception with a roster player going out. Also, Toronto won’t take on a full $12.8 million since it only has that roughly $10 million in luxury tax room.
Keep in mind that there are more teams than usual in a similar position to the Raptors, so they won’t have a ton of leverage. Washington, Utah and Detroit come to mind as teams that also can take on salary in exchange for goodies.
WHO MIGHT THEY PARTNER WITH?
Miami needs and wants to unload Butler. New Orleans hasn’t been able to find a pathway to a new contract with Brandon Ingram, who has averaged 23 points a game over the last six seasons, and also is less than $2.5 million over the luxury tax. That franchise has never paid the tax and will be angling to get under with or without an Ingram deal. Toronto has been connected to Ingram, but sources say it has been merely the standard practice of taking a call, rather than actively pursuing. For the right price though, anyone as talented as Ingram could make sense for Toronto.
Cleveland is also close to ducking the tax, despite being a contender. Teams such as Golden State, Denver and Philadelphia likely will attempt to lower their bill even if getting fully under the tax is unlikely.
There’s also the highest-spending teams (Phoenix, Minnesota, Boston, Milwaukee, New York, maybe the Lakers, and Nuggets), who will be in touch with teams willing to absorb some of their contracts to help them get their cap situations more in order (and to help lower the punitive new punishments for overspending under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement).
WHAT NOT TO EXPECT?
Don’t wait on the Raptors adding a big-name, big-money player, unless an Olynyk (possible), RJ Barrett (highly unlikely) or Jakob Poeltl (ditto) are going the other way. For one, they don’t want to take on salary next season with Scottie Barnes set to eat up at least 25% of the cap on his new contract, Immanuel Quickley signed for $32.5 million a season for years to come and, if the lottery balls break right, a hefty amount potentially coming to whoever they draft this summer. They also will have to replace Brown, Boucher, maybe Mitchell, and maybe veteran Garrett Temple, which, coupled with the draft pick and using the mid-level exception, won’t leave them much room below the tax next season.
WHAT SHOULD THEY DO?
Get a bunch of second-round picks, or an interesting “redraft” candidate (like Ochai Agbaji was last season) for Brown, Boucher, or for taking on salary via their exception, and check on the market for Olynyk, even though it’s nice to have the former Canadian captain on hand and his three-point shooting is a big help on a poor shooting team. They always could dangle Olynyk again next year when he’ll be on an expiring contract. Also, hold on to Poeltl and Barrett and as Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy pointed out, saving some of the mid-level for intriguing three-point gunner Jamison Battle probably makes sense and by keeping some of that exception available, they could sign Battle beyond the two years they otherwise would be able to do when converting his two-way contract to a standard one.