Segment review #5, Games 41-50
I recall watching a game involving the Los Angeles Kings in the early ’90s which at one point featured the following graphic: “Wayne Gretzky — 17 points in last 7 games”.
I laughed aloud and said to my wife, “they could just as easily put up a similar blurb saying Gretzky has scored 170 points in his last 70 games, or 1700 points in his last 700 games, and they wouldn’t be far wrong”. The point being that the Great One’s highlighted “hot streak” was pretty much on brand with his long term track record. Splendid numbers to be sure, but pretty much Business As Usual.
Flash forward 30-odd years to the modern NHL. TV producers and pundits alike continue to pick and choose streaks and slumps of cherry-picked lengths. However, one measure of team performance over a specific intermediate term can be found in the NHL standings, namely each club’s record over the last 10 games. Here for example is a slightly abridged version of the Pacific Division including games through Jan 28:
That L10 column provides a useful snapshot of how a given team has been trending over the past three weeks or so. In this example we see the Oilers have posted a 7-3-0 mark over their past 10 GP. They’ve been the best team in the division over that span, part of the reason that they have ascended to first place in the Pacific. It’s a nice run, and yet it’s not much different from the .670 points percentage the team has compiled over the season to date. Business As Usual.
But while most NHL teams display a fair bit of hot-n-cold in that L10 column, for the Edmonton Oilers its leading digit has been either a 7 or an 8 since way back on Dec 10. That was 22 games ago, and of course stretches back to the 10 games preceding that date.
It so happens that here at the Cult of Hockey we regularly subdivide each season into 10-game segments, and with Game 50 in the books it’s time for our latest update. The theme this time being how completely unexceptional this latest run of games has been, pretty much on par with the team’s longer term performance during Kris Knoblauch’s entire time behind the bench.
Season to date by segment
2023-24
…
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 371 SF, 271 SA | .993 PDO
Games 31-40: 10-0-0, 1.000 | 37 GF, 16 GA | 340 SF, 278 SA | 1.051 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 310 SF, 284 SA | 1.025 PDO
Games 51-60: 7-2-1, .750 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 324 SF, 286 SA | 1.013 PDO
Games 61-70: 5-3-2, .600 | 38 GF, 30 GA | 364 SF, 294 SA | 1.002 PDO
Games 71-80: 6-2-2, .700 | 39 GF, 23 GA | 341 SF, 268 SA | 1.029 PDO
2024-25
Games 1 –10: 4-5-1, .450 | 22 GF, 35 GA | 343 SF, 261 SA | .930 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-3-1, .650 | 33 GF, 27 GA | 318 SF, 249 SA | .995 PDO
Games 21-30: 8-2-0, .800 | 42 GF, 22 GA | 314 SF, 281 SA | 1.055 PDO
Games 31-40: 7-2-1, .750 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 304 SF, 258 SA | 1.018 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 34 GF, 26 GA | 317 SF, 273 SA | 1.012 PDO
Dipping into the archives of last season, the above data includes every 10-game segment fully coached by Kris Knoblauch. (Games 14-20 and Games 81-82 of 2023-24 have been omitted as incomplete sets.) Ten such prior segments are shown in italics; the most recent one in bold.
The latest line features some pretty solid results. The Oilers controlled the flow of play, producing roughly 54% of all shots on goal, an average margin of 4.4 shots per game. Moreover, they converted their shots at a higher rate, with a shooting percentage of 10.7% compared to 9.5%. This success is reflected in PDO, which is the sum of Edmonton’s shooting (.107) and save percentages (.905). More shots plus better percentages is a sure fire recipe for success: the Oil scored some 57% of the goals in the segment, enough to win fully 70% of those games.
These process numbers are largely supported by our own video analysis here at the Cult of Hockey. In the most recent 10 games, the Oilers produced 54% of Grade A shots in all situations (147 to 125) and 55% of the most dangerous, 5 Alarm shots (72 to 58).
What stands out throughout Knoblauch’s time here is his team’s ability to sustain such a high level over an extended period, with the most recent set of games being decidedly “average”. Let’s dig a bit deeper into each compartment of our chosen stat lines, comparing the recent segment to its ten predecessors. The outputs can be directly compared with an implied decimal point in the greater sample, or produce a per-game average with a properly-placed decimal point in each.
Goals
- 100 GP, 355 GF, 261 GA
- 10 GP, 34 GF, 26 GA
The most recent set was a Leon Draisaitl empty-net gimme away from hitting the average totals in both columns.
Shots
- 100 GP, 3329 SF, 2732 SA
- 10 GP, 317 SF, 273 SA
A slight drop in shots, from 33.3 per game to 31.7, while shots allowed were bang on the prior established average.
PDO
- 100 GP, 10.7% Sh% + .904 Sv% = 1.011 PDO
- 10 GP, 10.7% Sh% + .905 Sv% = 1.012 PDO
Virtually identical.
Results
- 100 GP, 67-27-8, .710
- 10 GP, 7-3-0, .700
The Oilers have won at least 7 games in 7 of Knoblauch’s 11 full segments to date, and recorded a .700 points percentage in an eighth (6-2-2). Two others were .600 or better. Just the opening set of the current campaign featured subpar results, an 0-3-0 start followed by a 4-2-1 recovery.
That sloppy start to the current season represents the only time the Oilers have dropped more than 3 (!) games in regulation in any identified 10-game set on Kris Knoblauch’s watch.
The takeaway from all of this is that 7-3-0 with solid underlying data is nothing more than Business As Usual for the Edmonton Oilers. The only exceptional aspect to the most recent sample explored here is how unexceptional it is. Normally we might expect a little variance, above the norm here, below it there, but this most recent set of 10 games was a particularly faithful reflection of the larger sample that that preceded it.
Goalies
On the individual side, the Oilers received steady netminding, this time highlighted by the fine performance of backup Calvin Pickard, who won all 4 of his starts. Pickard allowed 2 or 3 goals in each, and got plenty of goal support to pull out the win. Indeed, the Oilers scored over half of their goals (19 of 34) in Pickard’s 4 games.
For his part, Stu Skinner came up on the short end of a couple of 3-2 decisions, leaving him with a so-so record of 3 wins, 3 losses despite good percentages in the other columns.
Defencemen
For all of the dissatisfaction with his play expressed across large swaths of Oil Country, Evan Bouchard continues to get results, even as they remain down a smidge from his brilliant 2023-24 season. In the 10 games just past, Bouchard led or co-led the squad in G-A-P, plus, shots and time on ice. His partner Mattias Ekholm had a strong run of play, as did Darnell Nurse on the second pairing and Ty Emberson on the third.
One minor note of concern is the -4 goal differential posted by Brett Kulak whose play tailed off a bit after a very strong first half of the season.
Forwards
There’s good old Leon Draisaitl atop the scoring list for the fifth segment in a row, this time leading the team outright in all three of the G-A-P departments, as well as in shots on goal.
Connor McDavid was the surprise team leader in penalty minutes, with all 15 of those minutes coming from a single unfortunate incident that would ultimately cost him 3 games and presumably a few points. McDavid also led the squad in shooting percentage and ice time.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins quietly put together a nice run of 5-4-9 and has been lighting the lamp with regularity after a very poor stretch to open the season.
Veteran grinder, scorer and pest Corey Perry also had a strong set of games, his 3 goals being the most of any forward outside the first powerplay unit. Particularly impressive was his +8, the best of any Edmonton skater.
Player grades
We close in our usual fashion by reviewing the set of 10 games through the lens of our own subjective ratings here at the Cult of Hockey. Regular readers will know that we grade on a scale of 1 to 10, the performance of every Edmonton Oilers player in every game the team plays, based on a combination of observation and interpretation of statistical output. Here are average grades for Games 41-50 along with our customary thumbnail comment summarizing each player’s contribution over that span:
Results by grader, fourth segment:
- Bruce McCurdy — 4 games, 3-1-0, average grade 5.4
- Kurt Leavins – 3 games, 2-1-0, average grade 5.7
- David Staples — 3 games, 2-1-0, average grade 6.1
- Segment totals – 10 games, 7-3-0, average grade 5.7
- Game-by-game grades, season-to-date (spreadsheet)
- Games 1-10 review
- Games 11-20 review
- Games 21-30 review
- Games 31-40 review
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