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Hands up if you had Bournemouth down to be a part of a seismic weekend in the title race once the calendar turned to February.
Half of the equation is Arsenal hosting Manchester City, which everyone had their eye on the second the fixtures were released in what is clearly the Fubo Game of the Week.
Arsenal is six points behind leaders Liverpool and have played one more match. City is 12 back of Liverpool having also played a game more. After a puzzling spell before Christmas, City have levelled the ship and have won four of their past five.
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Either team losing probably sees their chances of overhauling Liverpool dim considerably and a draw likely does the same for both.
That’s if Liverpool can overcome Bournemouth — a huge if.
Bournemouth hasn’t lost in their past 11 games (eight wins, three draws), they’re coming off a massive 5-0 thumping of third-place Nottingham Forest, have lost at home just twice all season and have claimed the scalps of both Arsenal and Manchester City at their home on the south coast already.
The Gunners are on a bit of a run themselves, having not lost since Nov. 2, but in those 13 games they’ve drawn five — that’s 10 points dropped that has seen them unable to really gain any ground on Liverpool. As has been the issue all season it has been finding that extra goal to turn draws into wins. Despite playing a game more, they’ve scored ten fewer goals than Liverpool and three fewer than City.
The Mancunians avoided an embarrassing early exit from the Champions League with a comeback win against Club Brugge to make the playoffs to get into the Champions League knockout round, but it’s their league form that should worry Arsenal fans. The Sky Blues brushed Chelsea aside 3-1 last weekend and have scored 15 goals in their past four matches.
Arsenal can lock things up tight and lean on their somewhat celebrated set-piece prowess to try and get a goal or two, but should City find the back of the net, Arsenal are going to need improvement in their attack to keep pace.
What would help both clubs would obviously be if Bournemouth can get anything out of Liverpool. While the Cherries have had a great run, they’ve scored an average of 1.78 goals per game while giving up 1.13 per match. They thrive on tight margins.
Liverpool has been scoring a whopping 2.45 goals per game and conceded an average of .95 — when Liverpool wins, it does it much more convincingly that Bournemouth.
The key for Bournemouth will be what kind of strategy they want to employ. Liverpool has struggled at times to break down teams that play with a low block and limit any space in their own final third, but don’t venture forward much.
Bournemouth have been boosted lately by the form of striker Justin Kluivert, son of Dutch legend Patrick Kluivert.
Kluivert has five goals in his past three games and arguably is the biggest threat at striker since they joined the Premier League.
Spurs of the moment
Next week Tottenham goes to Liverpool for the second leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal with a slender 1-0 lead. Spurs haven’t won a trophy since 2008, so that will be a massive match for the club. If it wasn’t for that lead, they may be under stewardship of a new manager.
Ange Postecoglu’s squad lost 2-1 at home to 17th-place Leicester last week, their fourth league loss in a row. Their most recent win was Dec. 15 against last-place Southampton, they have one win and two draws in their past 11 games and sit in 15th place.
What’s staggering is they’ve scored 46 goals — only City (47) and Liverpool (54) have scored more — but they sit 17 points out of the Champions League places, which was their primary goal for the season.
They get a resolute Brentford team this weekend and, while it’s doubtful they’d actually fire their manager the week of a crucial semifinal match, another loss and you have to wonder how the players can continue to be told to do the same things over and over again with no results.
If they don’t get to the final of the Carabao Cup, the writing on the wall may be there for Postecoglu anyway as this has been a nightmare season and while they’ve suffered significant injuries this year (most teams have to be fair), the fact they haven’t gone out and spent on players to fill those gaps shows they’ve probably decided not to back their manager in the long-term and don’t want to buy players under his advisement if they’ve already decided to make a change.
Bottom of the Barrell
Southampton truly is dreadful and you can already chalk them off as going straight back down to the Championship. With just six points, they’re on pace to be even worse than 2007 Derby County, who amassed 11 points during the season.
But who will join them? Will Ipswich and Leicester be the other two to make it the second year in a row that the three promoted clubs all go straight back down?
This weekend will be telling, considering how valuable points are at the bottom end. Everton has looked much better under David Moyes, has won two in a row and, if the Toffees beat Leicester this weekend, can probably consider themselves safe as they’ll be nine points above the line.
But should Leicester pull off the win, they’ll be just three back and have hope. Ipswich gets Southampton, so if they can get the win they’ll likely overhaul Wolves who are playing Aston Villa.
It’s brutal when the teams at the bottom have to try and gulf such a chasm with the teams at the top, beating the other teams in the race at the bottom this time of year is like them winning a trophy.
This weekend’s slate
Saturday: Nottingham Forest v. Brighton; Bournemouth v. Liverpool; Everton v. Leicester; Ipswich v. Southampton; Newcastle v. Fulham; Wolves v. Aston Villa.
Sunday: Brentford v. Tottenham; Manchester United v. Crystal Palace; Arsenal v. Manchester City.
Monday: Chelsea v. West Ham.