The timing couldn’t have been better for Premier Doug Ford when it comes to his early election call.
Just around the time that Ford was visiting with Lt.-Gov. Edith Dumont to ask for the Ontario Legislature to be dissolved and an election to be called, Donald Trump’s office was making clear that big tariffs were coming.
“The Feb. 1 date for Canada and Mexico still holds,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in response to a question.
Trump’s tariffs are the entire reason, at least the public reason, for Ford to be seeking an early mandate. Some of his advisers have been pushing him to seek an early mandate well in advance of the scheduled June 2026 election date, but Ford was hesitant until Trump’s calls for big tariffs, essentially a tax on Canadian exports to the U.S., and call to annex Canada became too much.
“I can’t stress enough how devastating these tariffs will be on Ontario families, Ontario workers and I’m going to stand beside you, I’m going to support you and I’ll spare no expense to make sure I protect you,” Ford said Tuesday morning.
He said he needs a strong mandate to have a loud voice while dealing with Trump over the next four years and that he needs to have a mandate that goes past when Trump’s term in office ends. That’s not a line that Ontario’s opposition parties were buying as they responded to Ford making the election call official.
“While the people of Ontario are anxious about the grave threat of tariffs, Doug Ford is pursuing his own political gain,” NDP Leader Marit Stiles said in a statement.
She said Ontario residents need a leader who will fight for them and not for their own job.
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said in response to the election call that Ford is “wasting $175 million on an early election instead of using it to fix our broken health-care system and make your life more affordable.”
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One of the flurry of last-minute announcements from the Ford government before the election was called was related to health care. Ford had asked Jane Philpott, the former federal health minister under Justin Trudeau, to devise a plan to expand access to family doctors and they put forward a $1.8-billion, four-year plan as a remedy to the issue.
The provincial election is normally fought over issues of provincial importance like health care and education. While those will be significant issues in the coming campaign, they won’t be the main issue.
Virtually the only issue will be who can and will deal with Trump and the tariffs we may face. While relations between countries may be a federal issue, the lack of leadership at the federal level, including Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation, gives Ford an opening.
Let’s be clear: Ford is exploiting an issue and a lack of federal leadership for political gain. He doesn’t need to take the province into an election right now, but all the numbers work for him at this point.
The latest Abacus Data poll puts Ford’s Progressive Conservatives at 47%, Crombie’s Liberals at 24%, Stiles’s NDP at 19% support and the Mike Schreiner-led Green party at 7%. A poll for Postmedia, released a week earlier, showed similar results.
These are the numbers going into an election, but the reality is they could change at any point. Events, dear boy, events is the maxim that everyone in or around politics learns early.
To put it a different way – voters are fickle, polls can change, campaigns matter. While unlikely at this point, Ford could end up regretting this election.