Donald Trump’s second inauguration was markedly different from his first in 2017. It was held indoors because of severe cold temperatures but, beyond that, the mood was generally buoyant, not skeptical, recognizing Trump’s amazing political comeback against an unprecedented onslaught of legal manoeuvres — “lawfare” — intended to keep him from running again. He succeeded by capturing all battleground states, a clear plurality in the popular vote, the Electoral College, the Senate and, albeit marginally, the House, attracting support from segments of traditional Democrat voting blocs — African Americans, Hispanics and young voters.
Trump’s clear victory was also an indictment of the Biden administration’s dismal record on the economy, inflation, the invasion of the southern border, crime, and the progressive woke measures shunned by many Americans who resented being pushed to support positions that contradict common sense.
Joe Biden did not help his legacy by issuing a record number of pardons and commutations in his final month, including unprecedented “pre-emptive pardons” for Dr. Anthony Fauci, who led America’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic; Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; the “Select” Committee on the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots; and, just 15 minutes before Trump’s inaugural speech, key members of his family. That timing and the action left a distinct bad taste.
Unlike 2017, Trump was well-prepared and hit the ground running, immediately issuing 200 executive orders at different events, applying shock therapy across the government to deliver on key campaign promises. He rescinded 78 of his predecessor’s edicts and declared a national emergency on the southern border to repel the “disastrous invasion of our country,” vowing to return “millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came.” Trump also seeks to end automatic “birthright citizenship” for children of people not in the country legally, action that was promptly blocked on a temporary basis by a Seattle federal judge.
Trump postponed the ban on TikTok (which had helped his campaign) and pardoned about 1,500 people convicted following the Jan. 6 siege on the Capitol, including some who had acted violently against police.
The president invoked emergency powers to boost domestic energy production and to rescind Biden-era policies designed to fight climate change. He signed an order to eliminate EV mandates and subsidies and vowed to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement and the WHO.
Trump asserted that the “official policy” of the U.S. is that there are only two sexes — male and female. He required all government agencies to give force to the directive to reflect “biological reality” and explicitly prohibited men from women’s sports and women’s locker rooms.
He ended the government practice of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and efforts to socially engineer race and gender “into every aspect of public and private life.” All federal departments and agencies were ordered to eliminate work-from-home options.
On trade, Trump hedged slightly on his threat of 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which would devastate both, directing instead key agencies to “investigate the U.S. trade deficits with major trading partners,” as well as to “assess the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico (and) the PRC … and recommend appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency.” That at least provides a rational basis for diplomatic representations and negotiation.
Trump frequently repeated to the avid party faithful that the U.S. was being “ripped off” on trade by friends and enemies alike, saying the U.S. was subsidizing Europe, Canada, etc. with its lenient trade policy while failing to get its allies to commit fairly to their own security.
Sadly, no Washington elected official or senior U.S. business executive challenged any of Trump’s myopic trade orthodoxy regarding Canada.
And yet, as Ross McKitrick pointed out in these pages recently, Trump’s complaints about the U.S. trade deficits are a “made-in-Washington problem.” The trillion-dollar trade deficit mirrors what Canada and the rest of the world buys in U.S. financial instruments including treasury bills each year, to enable Washington to function. “All the tariffs in the world won’t shrink the trade deficit as long as Congress needs to borrow so much money each year. Eliminate the budget deficit and the trade deficit will disappear, too.”
As Holman Jenkins opined in the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s “trade wars threaten to undo the benefits of his deregulation push … making business less eager to invest and hire.” They will also increase costs for consumers. Someone, like Elon Musk, should try to explain these basics on trade to the mercurial president.
Unlike 2017, Trump is enjoying a post-election honeymoon. The first day was a marvel of pomp and massive media coverage. (He gave more open media interviews in eight hours than Biden did in many months.) His popularity has risen above 50 per cent while the Democrats seem leaderless and uncertain about how to react.
Trump will use his presidential authority to the maximum extent possible. Yet he will have difficulty gaining necessary legislative support from Congress on key campaign promises. He will probably gain approval from the Senate for most, if not all, of his cabinet nominees but the prospects of support for budgetary reconciliation bills to fund his plans, for lifting the debt limit and extending the 2017 tax cuts are subject to the whim of highly fractious House Republicans who have a slim three-seat majority. Will the current euphoria hold?
Trump’s promise of an America on the rise, with prosperity for the working class, secure borders and cancellation of the woke agenda of the previous four years resonated with voters across the political spectrum. His inaugural message was a blunt, confident repetition of key campaign themes. While his trade position is understandably disturbing to Canadians and should be resolved pragmatically, his call for a “revolution of common sense” seems to appeal to Americans, many of whom believe he was unfairly put through the ringer by multiple legal challenges from his political foes, to say nothing of enduring two assassination attempts. His resilience, toughness and unique powers of communication — as demonstrated in visits to hurricane-ravaged North Carolina and wildfire-devastated California — sharply contrasted with Biden’s performance and will be vital to his future success.
National Post
Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989 to 1993.